King World News har intervjuat ‘guldgurun’ Jim Sinclair för att få hans kommentarer till utvecklingen på guldmarknaden och vad som väntar. Han ger även sin syn på utvecklingen i Mellanöstern/Nordafrika och varför oljan kan stiga till 150-200 dollar.
Regelbundna läsare vet att Jim hör till de personer som jag respekterar allra mest. Han har bl a förmågan att se händelser i ett större perspektiv och inte ryckas med i det kortsiktiga han kallar för ‘brus’. Läsning rekommenderas givetvis.
Det här är vad Jim hade att säga:
If you would analyze what happened today in terms of economic figures, market sentiment and the action of traders, you’ve got to come to the conclusion that gold is not going to do much more than be violent around the $1,400 level…You’ve got to see that above and below $1,400 is just the same as $1,300, just the same as $1,200 and by God when you see it at $1,500 and $1,600 you’re not going to believe the violence that’s going to go on around the round numbers.
So I would say to any of our audience who is interested in gold, who’s trading gold, who’s buying insurance in gold, that if you analyze what happened today, you’ve got your guarantee that gold will trade at $1,650 and probably an awful lot higher.
When asked if we will get disorder to the upside in gold Sinclair commented:
Absolutely, the guarantee of it is the sentiment…If you take the violence that you’ve got at $,1400, can you imagine what the violence would be at $2,400? But I love the way Dean Harry Schultz approaches it, he’s told us all not to bother him, but you can wake him up at $2,400…You’ve had an arithmetic rise in gold, wait until you see what geometric looks like.
When asked how frightening will that be for the public (the geometric rise in gold) Sinclair stated:
I’m scared to death right now when I look around and see the people out of work. I’ve got both husband and wife working for me to give you an idea of the problems that families have had. If you don’t think that civil unrest won’t find its way to the United States as it has found its way to Ireland, to France and to Italy and the Middle-East, you’re whistling dixie.
Today the sentiment is negative but truthfully the fundamental of today is the most positive fundamental you could possibly get as weakening economic figures demand QE2, QE3, QE4 and so forth.
At the same time the change in the Middle-East is a world change. It’s not this spontaneous explosion of democracy. Those guys that are fighting in Libya, take a look at them. They are wearing bandoliers of 51 caliber around them, this is not exactly your store owner and farmer who is rebelling. And you’ve got to ask who will benefit the most from what is going on?
This is organized, planned, designed, and anti-west, over which Iran will come out the most powerful entity in the Middle-East. What that means is that oil will trade at $150, possibly $200 (per barrel). And if you add into that the fact that we have passed peak oil which was a concept that you would look at 15 and 20 years out, because of peak oil added to that equation…the gold market is going longer and higher because of what’s happened in the last month than it would have before.
The dollar and the long bond market are very closely tied. A lack of willingness to buy our long bonds is in a sense, in a very real sense a negative on the US dollar…So the dollar will be wild, but lower on balance.
The dollar chart has been horrible for a long time. The dollar’s chart broke down with six head and shoulders. I mean how bad can you get? And it developed an enormous head and shoulders. Not like gold, the dollar will follow its chart which will be a product of the long bond collapse.