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Jim Sinclair: 1650 dollar guld är garanterat, oljan kommer stiga till minst 150 dollar

March 11th, 2011 3 comments

King World News har intervjuat ‘guldgurun’ Jim Sinclair för att få hans kommentarer till utvecklingen på guldmarknaden och vad som väntar. Han ger även sin syn på utvecklingen i Mellanöstern/Nordafrika och varför oljan kan stiga till 150-200 dollar.

Regelbundna läsare vet att Jim hör till de personer som jag respekterar allra mest. Han har bl a förmågan att se händelser i ett större perspektiv och inte ryckas med i det kortsiktiga han kallar för ‘brus’. Läsning rekommenderas givetvis.

Det här är vad Jim hade att säga:

If you would analyze what happened today in terms of economic figures, market sentiment and the action of traders, you’ve got to come to the conclusion that gold is not going to do much more than be violent around the $1,400 level…You’ve got to see that above and below $1,400 is just the same as $1,300, just the same as $1,200 and by God when you see it at $1,500 and $1,600 you’re not going to believe the violence that’s going to go on around the round numbers.

So I would say to any of our audience who is interested in gold, who’s trading gold, who’s buying insurance in gold, that if you analyze what happened today, you’ve got your guarantee that gold will trade at $1,650 and probably an awful lot higher.

When asked if we will get disorder to the upside in gold Sinclair commented:

Absolutely, the guarantee of it is the sentiment…If you take the violence that you’ve got at $,1400, can you imagine what the violence would be at $2,400?  But I love the way Dean Harry Schultz approaches it, he’s told us all not to bother him, but you can wake him up at $2,400…You’ve had an arithmetic rise in gold, wait until you see what geometric looks like.

When asked how frightening will that be for the public (the geometric rise in gold) Sinclair stated:

I’m scared to death right now when I look around and see the people out of work.  I’ve got both husband and wife working for me to give you an idea of the problems that families have had.  If you don’t think that civil unrest won’t find its way to the United States as it has found its way to Ireland, to France and to Italy and the Middle-East, you’re whistling dixie.

Today the sentiment is negative but truthfully the fundamental of today is the most positive fundamental you could possibly get as weakening economic figures demand QE2, QE3, QE4 and so forth.

At the same time the change in the Middle-East is a world change.  It’s not this spontaneous explosion of democracy.  Those guys that are fighting in Libya, take a look at them.  They are wearing bandoliers of 51 caliber around them, this is not exactly your store owner and farmer who is rebelling.  And you’ve got to ask who will benefit the most from what is going on?

This is organized, planned, designed, and anti-west, over which Iran will come out the most powerful entity in the Middle-East.  What that means is that oil will trade at $150, possibly $200 (per barrel).  And if you add into that the fact that we have passed peak oil which was a concept that you would look at 15 and 20 years out, because of peak oil added to that equation…the gold market is going longer and higher because of what’s happened in the last month than it would have before.

Om dollarn:

The dollar and the long bond market are very closely tied.  A lack of willingness to buy our long bonds is in a sense, in a very real sense a negative on the US dollar…So the dollar will be wild, but lower on balance.

The dollar chart has been horrible for a long time.  The dollar’s chart broke down with six head and shoulders.  I mean how bad can you get?  And it developed an enormous head and shoulders.  Not like gold, the dollar will follow its chart which will be a product of the long bond collapse.

Categories: Ädelmetaller, Guld, Olja Tags: , , ,

Fallande olja drar med sig guld och silver ner

March 10th, 2011 2 comments

Aktiemarknaden och råvarumarknaden föll brant under torsdagens handel och det blev svårt för silver och guld att stå emot. Oljepriset backade först kraftigt på spekulationer om att oroligheterna inte kommer att sprida sig till Saudiarabien, återhämtade sig sedan en del av nedgången efter rapporter om att polisen öppnat eld mot demonstranter i landet men vände ner igen efter rapporter om att polisen använt gummikulor. Om det inte vore så tragiskt så skulle man garva.

Utvecklingen i Saudiarabien kommer givetvis att bestämma riktningen för oljan och i sin tur guld och silver, men även aktiemarknaden och övriga råvarumarknaden. Om vi inte får se några större oroligheter i Saudiarabien på ‘Day of rage’ imorgon, finns stor chans att oljan fortsätter ner och drar med sig guld och silver ytterligare. Även om det inte blir några demonstrationer imorgon så är jag personligen helt övertygad om att det bara är en tidsfråga innan oroligheterna sprider sig till Saudi.

En del av er noterade kanske att gruvbolagen gick svagt på onsdagen trots att guld och silver inte rörde sig så mycket. Som vi skrivit om tidigare är detta ofta ett tecken på en kommande ‘attack’ på guld och silver från kartellen och det fick vi sannerligen se idag. För er som spekulerar med pappersguld och silver kan det därför vara värt att notera att gruvorna även idag backade kraftigt mot slutet av handeln, i motsats till guld och silver. Detta kan givetvis bero på att aktiemarknaden backade rejält, men det kan lika väl innebära att vi kan vänta oss ytterligare en ‘attack’ imorgon. Räkna med fortsatt stor volatilitet för guld och silver som vi skrivit om flera gånger tidigare.

Nedan är en silver graf och kommentar från Dan Norcini:

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Oe30c22jS-c/TXksQ0mZeCI/AAAAAAAAAL8/5yy9UGnP4js/s1600/snapshot-513.png

It’s been a busy day today with a lot of action and quickly changing markets but here is an afternoon chart of silver. It looks like it was able to stave off the selling and recapture support near $35 which is promising particularly as we are now finally seeing some good upside volume compared to what we have been getting recently.

First order of business for the bulls is to get the price back over $35.50 and keep it there.

If they run and let the sellers get aggressive, today’s low near $34.75 needs to hold to prevent a run back down towards $34.40 – $34.30

Louise Yamada: $80 silver, $2,000 guld och $140 olja

March 7th, 2011 No comments

King World News har intervjuat Louise Yamada, en av de främsta experterna på teknisk analys. Det här är vad Yamada hade att säga om guld:

Gold looks fine as it is moving to a new high. Gold is probably on its way to $1,500 and then $2,000. Silver is outperforming right now, but they take turns so that is normal. Gold remains in a structural bull market that was initiated in 2002.

Om silver:

Silver has 60% industrial usage, but because there are still the monetary concerns out there, silver represents a less expensive alternative to owning gold.

I think that silver has lifted out of a 30 year base and the whole concept of the longer the consolidation, the greater potential upside. Silver is clearly in a structural bull market.

The point and figure calculations off of this base are $40, $45, $60, $75 and $80 over months to years.” The higher end of those number would put silver well into all-time high territory in nominal terms. She commented, “These are short and intermediate and longer-term targets over a period of years.

Och om olja:

Oil came out of a two year consolidation when it went through $92 and we had a target of $100 which it has reached. We have further targets at $115, $125 and $140 intermediate to longer-term. Of course given the international upheaval all bets are off on the timing.

Eric Kings kommentar om först oljan och sedan silver:

We took that to mean those targets could be achieved very rapidly should there be further destabilization in key areas of the Middle-East.

Louise has been around this business for a long time and has made some extraordinary calls. Her targets on silver were of particular interest because $80 silver would not only put enormous pressure on the shorts in that market, but it would add fuel to the already long list of plaintiffs which have filed suit claiming there has been manipulation in the silver market.