Finansiella Insikter

Vi kommer nog alla ihåg hur De Styrande via ‘kartellen’ krossade silver genom sin spektakulära attack i början på maj. För att maskera den massiva kreditexpansionen och hålla illusionen om en återhämtning vid liv tvingades man som bekant i förra veckan att dumpa delar av oljereserverna för att förhindra att det viktiga oljepriset riskerade att punktera både världsekonomin och tålamodet bland framförallt den allt fattigare amerikanska befolkningen.

Men det stannade inte där. Flera av er noterade säkert det spektakulära raset för majs tidigare i veckan efter att USDA släppt en överraskande dålig rapport. Denna visade på ett mycket större utbud än väntat, vilket tog marknaden helt på sängen då den inte alls rimmade med de signaler som kommit tidigare om översvämningar etc som skulle leda till minskat utbud och påverka priset positivt.

Men, som ni kommer att se bland kommentarerna lite längre ned, så finns det dock flera som ser all anledning att misstro rapporten från USDA, som i själva verket kan ha varit en nyckel i en plan att temporärt få stopp på de skenande matpriserna, som riskerar att skapa ännu mer kaos än det vi redan sett i MENA.

Här är en graf (via ZeroHedge) som visar hur majs kollapsade efter rapporten släppts:

Nedan är en kommentar från Bill Murphys nyhetsbrev där man som sagt inte utesluter att kartellen beslutat sig för att helt enkelt fortsätta med sin manipulation av råvarumarknaden, nu med fokus på matpriser:

There can be no doubt that there is an all-out effort to reign in commodity inflation by ANY means possible. The latest example is today’s ambush of corn. Back on May 3rd the CME, in contrast to all their puffing about controlling volatility in silver, increased daily and expanded trading limits on corn. Keep in mind corn was already volatile when they made the decision. There was (allegedly) a CFTC review, and after a 45 day waiting period it was implemented. It was opposed by many legitimate hedgers because they felt it would further increase volatility, and create nightmare situations for farmers and ag groups, while encouraging reckless speculation. Fast forward to today and the USDA comes out with a humdinger of a bearish crop report that in an instant sends July corn plummeting a stunning 11.50%, or 80.25 cents a bushel. This is eerily reminiscent of the Sunday night massacre of silver when it dropped $6 in 3 minutes.

The CME and CFTC had to be duplicitous when they allowed expanded daily limits on corn at the very same time that they were reigning in silver. The spec longs were set up for a wipeout and they sure as hell got one. Corn is just the latest messenger that needed to be shot, closely following gold, silver, and the (so far) failed attempt on oil with the SPR release. All attempts will eventually fail miserably. The USDA crop report was in stark contrast to the epic floods, draught, and poor planting conditions that U.S. farmers are experiencing. They have no doubt have shook out weak longs, and in doing so inflicted collateral damage on the entire grain complex.

Här är ytterligare en intressant kommentar:

I know your focus is the PMs but more and more I see the same manipulation happening in the agricultural markets… essentially their (central banking cartel) goal is the same: to mask the lack of purchasing power of the paper that they keep producing.

We’ve had a barrage of ‘traders manipulating grain prices’ from G-20 leaders and a concerted effort to place the pricing of ‘food’ under central control. One central entity needs to control all stockpile and planting numbers says Sarkozy… the market is too opaque. Right-o.

‘’If you control the oil you control the country; if you control food, you control the population.’’ ~ H Kissinger

There is article after article in the mainstream media talking record food prices but not one of them suggests that this has anything to do with the paucity of paper money; in fact when measured against gold, all food stuffs are still trading around multi-decade lows.

We’ve seen steep margin increases in all agri commodities (despite the fact many are down on the year)…. whilst they decrease margins in treasuries and equities.

This year, we’ve seen the same sort of raids on the softs we’ve seen for ages now in the PMs.

Today’s USDA plantings and stockpiles figures are a prime example of the manipulation. Every single number out of the USDA for the last 3-4 months has been bearish for the underlyings. No matter what the weather, no matter what the farmers are saying on the ground, grains are abundant and will remain so ad infinitum if one is to believe the USDA. People have always laughed at Chinese Govt. agri-figures for the same reason but now it’s the US and Europe doing it, no one talks about it.

It’s not just Gold and Silver anymore; the cabal is attacking anything that isn’t paper. They are determined that there is no alternative to their paper.

This time however, in attacking the softs, they are truly trying to ‘beat’ mother nature, such is their arrogance and desperation. The good thing is that I think it shows how much closer to the end-game we are; for trying to con mother nature has been shown time and again throughout history as a bad ploy and ultimately futile.

King World News har intervjuat ‘guldgurun’ Jim Sinclair för att få hans kommentarer till utvecklingen på guldmarknaden och vad som väntar. Han ger även sin syn på utvecklingen i Mellanöstern/Nordafrika och varför oljan kan stiga till 150-200 dollar.

Regelbundna läsare vet att Jim hör till de personer som jag respekterar allra mest. Han har bl a förmågan att se händelser i ett större perspektiv och inte ryckas med i det kortsiktiga han kallar för ‘brus’. Läsning rekommenderas givetvis.

Det här är vad Jim hade att säga:

If you would analyze what happened today in terms of economic figures, market sentiment and the action of traders, you’ve got to come to the conclusion that gold is not going to do much more than be violent around the $1,400 level…You’ve got to see that above and below $1,400 is just the same as $1,300, just the same as $1,200 and by God when you see it at $1,500 and $1,600 you’re not going to believe the violence that’s going to go on around the round numbers.

So I would say to any of our audience who is interested in gold, who’s trading gold, who’s buying insurance in gold, that if you analyze what happened today, you’ve got your guarantee that gold will trade at $1,650 and probably an awful lot higher.

When asked if we will get disorder to the upside in gold Sinclair commented:

Absolutely, the guarantee of it is the sentiment…If you take the violence that you’ve got at $,1400, can you imagine what the violence would be at $2,400?  But I love the way Dean Harry Schultz approaches it, he’s told us all not to bother him, but you can wake him up at $2,400…You’ve had an arithmetic rise in gold, wait until you see what geometric looks like.

When asked how frightening will that be for the public (the geometric rise in gold) Sinclair stated:

I’m scared to death right now when I look around and see the people out of work.  I’ve got both husband and wife working for me to give you an idea of the problems that families have had.  If you don’t think that civil unrest won’t find its way to the United States as it has found its way to Ireland, to France and to Italy and the Middle-East, you’re whistling dixie.

Today the sentiment is negative but truthfully the fundamental of today is the most positive fundamental you could possibly get as weakening economic figures demand QE2, QE3, QE4 and so forth.

At the same time the change in the Middle-East is a world change.  It’s not this spontaneous explosion of democracy.  Those guys that are fighting in Libya, take a look at them.  They are wearing bandoliers of 51 caliber around them, this is not exactly your store owner and farmer who is rebelling.  And you’ve got to ask who will benefit the most from what is going on?

This is organized, planned, designed, and anti-west, over which Iran will come out the most powerful entity in the Middle-East.  What that means is that oil will trade at $150, possibly $200 (per barrel).  And if you add into that the fact that we have passed peak oil which was a concept that you would look at 15 and 20 years out, because of peak oil added to that equation…the gold market is going longer and higher because of what’s happened in the last month than it would have before.

Om dollarn:

The dollar and the long bond market are very closely tied.  A lack of willingness to buy our long bonds is in a sense, in a very real sense a negative on the US dollar…So the dollar will be wild, but lower on balance.

The dollar chart has been horrible for a long time.  The dollar’s chart broke down with six head and shoulders.  I mean how bad can you get?  And it developed an enormous head and shoulders.  Not like gold, the dollar will follow its chart which will be a product of the long bond collapse.

Aktiemarknaden och råvarumarknaden föll brant under torsdagens handel och det blev svårt för silver och guld att stå emot. Oljepriset backade först kraftigt på spekulationer om att oroligheterna inte kommer att sprida sig till Saudiarabien, återhämtade sig sedan en del av nedgången efter rapporter om att polisen öppnat eld mot demonstranter i landet men vände ner igen efter rapporter om att polisen använt gummikulor. Om det inte vore så tragiskt så skulle man garva.

Utvecklingen i Saudiarabien kommer givetvis att bestämma riktningen för oljan och i sin tur guld och silver, men även aktiemarknaden och övriga råvarumarknaden. Om vi inte får se några större oroligheter i Saudiarabien på ‘Day of rage’ imorgon, finns stor chans att oljan fortsätter ner och drar med sig guld och silver ytterligare. Även om det inte blir några demonstrationer imorgon så är jag personligen helt övertygad om att det bara är en tidsfråga innan oroligheterna sprider sig till Saudi.

En del av er noterade kanske att gruvbolagen gick svagt på onsdagen trots att guld och silver inte rörde sig så mycket. Som vi skrivit om tidigare är detta ofta ett tecken på en kommande ‘attack’ på guld och silver från kartellen och det fick vi sannerligen se idag. För er som spekulerar med pappersguld och silver kan det därför vara värt att notera att gruvorna även idag backade kraftigt mot slutet av handeln, i motsats till guld och silver. Detta kan givetvis bero på att aktiemarknaden backade rejält, men det kan lika väl innebära att vi kan vänta oss ytterligare en ‘attack’ imorgon. Räkna med fortsatt stor volatilitet för guld och silver som vi skrivit om flera gånger tidigare.

Nedan är en silver graf och kommentar från Dan Norcini:

It’s been a busy day today with a lot of action and quickly changing markets but here is an afternoon chart of silver. It looks like it was able to stave off the selling and recapture support near $35 which is promising particularly as we are now finally seeing some good upside volume compared to what we have been getting recently.

First order of business for the bulls is to get the price back over $35.50 and keep it there.

If they run and let the sellers get aggressive, today’s low near $34.75 needs to hold to prevent a run back down towards $34.40 – $34.30

King World News har intervjuat Louise Yamada, en av de främsta experterna på teknisk analys. Det här är vad Yamada hade att säga om guld:

Gold looks fine as it is moving to a new high. Gold is probably on its way to $1,500 and then $2,000. Silver is outperforming right now, but they take turns so that is normal. Gold remains in a structural bull market that was initiated in 2002.

Om silver:

Silver has 60% industrial usage, but because there are still the monetary concerns out there, silver represents a less expensive alternative to owning gold.

I think that silver has lifted out of a 30 year base and the whole concept of the longer the consolidation, the greater potential upside. Silver is clearly in a structural bull market.

The point and figure calculations off of this base are $40, $45, $60, $75 and $80 over months to years.” The higher end of those number would put silver well into all-time high territory in nominal terms. She commented, “These are short and intermediate and longer-term targets over a period of years.

Och om olja:

Oil came out of a two year consolidation when it went through $92 and we had a target of $100 which it has reached. We have further targets at $115, $125 and $140 intermediate to longer-term. Of course given the international upheaval all bets are off on the timing.

Eric Kings kommentar om först oljan och sedan silver:

We took that to mean those targets could be achieved very rapidly should there be further destabilization in key areas of the Middle-East.

Louise has been around this business for a long time and has made some extraordinary calls. Her targets on silver were of particular interest because $80 silver would not only put enormous pressure on the shorts in that market, but it would add fuel to the already long list of plaintiffs which have filed suit claiming there has been manipulation in the silver market.

Nu har det gått så långt att investerare är beredda att köpa mynt för att innehållet är mer värt än vad som står på myntet. Men det lär inte hindra att Ben fortsätter att blåneka om inflationen.

How Much is a Nickel Worth? More than Five Cents, Says Michael Lewis

On ‘The Colbert Report’ (Weeknights, 11:30PM ET on Comedy Central) Stephen Colbert quizzed financial journalist Michael Lewis about what he thinks the next big investment opportunity might be.

“Nickels is what you want to buy, nickels,” Lewis explained.

“One of these characters, who made his fortune betting on the collapse of the system has started to buy nickels, ” Lewis continued. “The metal content of the nickels is now worth seven cents. If you melted it down, you’d get seven cents.”

According to Lewis, this mystery investor was able to get hold of 20 million nickels, which he keeps in a Brinks storage facility.

So hotshot financial types are hoarding nickels, apparently. This can’t be a positive sign for the economy.

En ny rapport från FN visar att de globala matpriserna steg till en ny rekordnivå i januari i år. Det lär dock inte stoppa Ben från att värma upp sedelpressarna inför QE3, eftersom det enligt honom beror på det dåliga vädret.

Att uppgången påbörjades långt innan det dåliga vädret slog till bekymrar honom heller inte det minsta, utan han utgår ifrån att folk är så otroligt korkade att dom köper allt han säger med hull och hår.

FAO food price index hits record high in January

(Reuters) – Global food prices hit a record high in January, the U.N Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday, adding that prices, already above the 2008 levels which sparked riots, were likely to rise further.

Up for the seventh month in a row, the closely watched FAO Food Price Index touched its highest since records began in 1990, in nominal terms, and topped the high of 224.1 in June 2008, during the food crisis of 2007/08.

The index, which measures monthly price changes for a food basket composed of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 230.7 points in January, up from 223.1 points in December.

Surging food prices have come back into the spotlight after they helped fueled protests that toppled Tunisia’s president in January. Food inflation has also been among the root causes of protests in Egypt and Jordan, raising speculation other nations in the region would secure grain stocks to reassure their populations.

Severe drought in the Black Sea last year, heavy rains in Australia and dry weather in Argentina and anticipation of a spike in demand after unrest in north Africa and the Middle East has helped power grain prices to multi-year highs.

The FAO’s Sugar Price Index soared to a record high of 420.2 points from 398.4 points in December.

Its Cereals Price Index, which includes prices of main food staples such as wheat, rice and corn, rose to an average of 244.8 points in January, the highest level since July 2008 but below its peak in April 2008, the data showed.

The Oils Price Index rose to 277.7 points in January from 263.0 points in December and came close to the June 2008 record level.

The FAO has revised the entire series of the index dating back to 1990 because of a change in calculating its meat component, but June 2008 remained a major food price index peak before January 2011.

Först Thomas Hoenig, sedan Elizabeth Duke, nu antyder ingen mindre än storchefen själv, Ben Bernanke, att QE3 är på god väg.

I ett tal på torsdagen sa Bernanke bl a att Federal Reserve förväntar sig att arbetslösheten kommer att vara över och inflationen under det långsiktiga målet under 2011, vilket tolkades av marknaden som att det inte finns några som helst planer på att sluta med QE-programmet. Guld och silver rusade inte oväntat när talet blev känt.

Bernanke försvarade QE2 och skyllde de skenande råvarupriserna på det dåliga vädret. Otroligt att Ben klarar av att ljuga folk rakt i ansiktet på detta sätt.

Bernanke says growth, inflation still missing Fed goals

(Reuters) – The U.S. economic recovery still needs help from the Federal Reserve despite signs of improvement, Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday.

The Fed chairman provided a modestly more rosy outlook for the world’s largest economy than he has done in previous speeches, citing gains in household spending, improved confidence, and stepped up bank lending as signs 2011 may bring stronger growth than 2010.

“Although economic growth will probably increase this year, we expect the unemployment rate to remain stubbornly above, and inflation to remain stubbornly below, the levels that Federal Reserve policymakers have judged to be consistent over the longer term with our mandate,” he said in remarks prepared for delivery to the National Press Club in Washington D.C.

Bernanke’s comments suggest a Fed that believes it has plenty of time to let its policies boost growth and pull down a lofty unemployment rate before it needs to worry about tightening financial conditions to keep any price pressures in check.

Even the hard hit job market shows some grounds for optimism, Bernanke said.

However, modest growth and cautious hiring suggest that it will be several years before the jobless rate returns to a more normal level, he said.

“Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established,” he said.

The Fed chairman defended the U.S. central bank’s controversial $600 billion bond buying program, saying its benefits are evident from a range of financial market metrics.

These include higher stock prices and less volatility in equities markets and narrower spreads between riskier and less risky corporate bonds, he said.

U.S. Treasury bond prices extended losses after Bernanke’s comments.

Bernanke played down worries that recent commodity price rises pose an inflation threat.

“Overall inflation remains quite low,” he said.

Här är en kommentar till talet från ZeroHedge:

The lies come hot and heavy:

* Initial claims for unemployment insurance have generally been trending down, and indicators of job openings and firms’ hiring plans have improved
* QE ‘Effective at easing financial conditions’
* Recovery likely to be ‘more rapid’ in 2011 than 2010
* ‘Overall inflation remains quite low’
* Recovery in consumer, business spending may be solid
* Economy seems to have strengthened in recent months

But here’s the only one that matters:

* Unemployment, inflation likely to defy Fed mandate

Which mandate is that Genocide Ben: would that be the mandate to kill off half the world with your revolutionary policies before the Russell hits 36,000?

Som vi tidigare uppmärksammat så har koppar brutit ut från en nära fyra år lång konsolidering och graferna nedan (med kommentarer) är ‘allt en investerare av silver behöver’ (via Midas).

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Dagens graf (via ZeroHedge) visar återigen på hur råvaror skjuter i höjden. I detta fallet handlar det om Jefferies globala råvaruindex (CRB) som noterar 27-månaderhögsta.

ZeroHedge passar på att inkludera följande skrämmande citat från Ben Bernanke:

“This fear of inflation is way overstated. We’ve looked at it very, very carefully. We’ve analyzed it every which way… We will not allow inflation to rise above 2% or less… I am 100% certain i can control inflation.“

Det kanske mest fascinerande är hur människor kan vara så naiva och fortfarande inte ser vad som är på gång.