Finansiella Insikter

FinanceAndEconomics.Org har publicerat ett mycket intressant inlägg där man ställer sig frågan om världens centralbanker bedriver ett sk ‘fractional reserve’ system i guld. Denna frågan uppkom efter att ha tagit del av den detaljerade genomgång av BIS rapporter som GATA-konsulten Robert Lambourne presenterade nyligen.

Rapporten visar bl a att BIS har två typer av konton för guld som centralbanker kan använda sig av; ett för allokerat guld (earmarked) och ett för icke allokerat guld (sight). Den senaste rapporten från BIS visar att drygt 90% av centralbankernas guld är i form av icke allokerat guld. Inte nog med det, nästan allt detta guld befinner sig dessutom fysiskt hos en annan centralbank, inte hos BIS. Även om en centralbank måste kunna leverera detta guld som förvaras åt en annan centralbank så finns det inget krav att verkligen ha detta guld, därav titeln på inlägget.

FinanceAndEconomics.Org drar därför slutsatsen att det är helt möjligt för en centralbank att bara behålla en bråkdel av detta icke allokerade guld, vilket är vad banker faktiskt gjort i urminnes tider.

Om rapporten och slutsatsen är korrekt, vilket jag inte tvivlar det minsta på, så ger detta en förvarning om magnituden på den kollaps som väntar för världens pappersvalutor.

Rekommenderar starkt att läsa hela inlägget nedan:

This thought is prompted by a forensic study of the Bank for International Settlements’ records and accounting procedures with respect to its dealings in gold, which was presented by Robert Lambourne to the Gold Symposium in Sydney on 9th November. The link to his report is here. Lambourne points out that the BIS was founded in 1930, when settlements between central banks routinely involved gold, and the primary function of the BIS was to facilitate these settlements without the physical transfer of bullion. This involved gold accounts being maintained at the BIS for gold owned by central banks, with other central banks at the main depository centres. Lambourne cites the example of the pre-war German Reichsbank, which held gold through the BIS in Amsterdam, Berne, Brussels, London and Paris.

Central banks were offered two different types of account at the BIS, earmarked and sight: earmarked accounts recorded gold held separately and specifically for a central bank, and sight accounts were non-specific. Earmarked gold is allocated, while sight gold is unallocated; earmarked is custodial and sight is co-mingled.

The flexibility of the system allowed a central bank to diversify its gold reserves in a number of centres through a politically neutral institution, and it made sense to allocate some of this into a fungible account to settle transactions with other central banks. But that was pre-war, and before the US, with the co-operation of the IMF and other European central banks, demonetised gold.

Today, the BIS still operates earmarked and sight accounts for central banks, but crucially, rather than have the bulk of gold in earmarked accounts with a smaller float in fungible sight accounts, the bulk of central bank gold is now held in unallocated sight form. Lambourne brings this point out in his analysis of the 2009/10 BIS Annual Report, which shows in Note 32 that the BIS holds only 212 tonnes for central banks in earmarked accounts, and 1,704 tonnes on its balance sheet in sight accounts. Furthermore, the BIS accounts disclose that almost all of the 1,704 tonnes is held at central banks in unallocated sight form. This confirms that the central banks themselves also operate sight accounts.

So to summarise so far, out of 1,912 tonnes at the BIS, 90% of it is now unallocated and nearly all of this gold is held in unallocated accounts at other central banks. While this sight gold at central banks is technically deliverable on demand, there is no apparent requirement for them to actually have it. It is therefore entirely possible for a central bank to retain only a small portion of the total owed on sight accounts, which after all is what banks have done from time immemorial.

The temptations to use physical gold from these unallocated sight accounts to supply the market have been enormous, given the progressive demonetisation and discreditation of gold by the BIS founder members. It is easy, without proper audits, to keep these activities secret from the markets and even from other central banks not in the inner circle. It would be very interesting to know, for example, the terms under which India agreed to buy 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF. Did she actually take delivery into an earmarked account, or was it a pure paper transaction across sight accounts? If she had insisted on an earmarked account, would the deal have gone to someone less picky? Was the IMF gold itself earmarked or sight, existing or non-existent? As an outsider from the inner BIS circle the Bank of India is not in a position to suspect she may be the victim of a pyramid scheme run by her superiors; nor indeed is any other of the minor central banks with sight accounts in London, New York or Zurich.

We must hope for the sake of financial stability that such suspicions are without foundation, but this hope is untenable while the major note-issuing banks refuse to provide independent audits of their activities. If these central banks have been operating a fractional sight system, then it could explain how they have managed to supply so much bullion into the markets while appearing to maintain their official reserves.

China and Russia must be watching this with great interest. We can assume that their intelligence services are more aware of the true position than the general public, and if they also conclude that the Western central banks are running a fractional system using sight accounts, this knowledge hands them great economic power.

It is relevant to bear this in mind, because it will condition the US’s response to what is developing into a destructive gold crisis. Political and strategic considerations will have to be weighed as well as purely financial and practical ones. It would be downright stupid, for example, for the US to confiscate privately owned gold, without international agreement from Russia China and India as well as the Europeans to take similar action. And how co-operative would any nation be when they discover that the gold they thought they had at the BIS, the Fed and the Bank of England has actually vanished?

This is important because the basic problem is that government and banking debt around the world are both rapidly moving towards default, and since governments are guaranteeing the lot, the pace of monetary creation is accelerating. The consequence is that the gold suppression schemes, which have existed for the last one hundred years in one form or another, are finally coming to an end. We are trying to guess how dramatic that end will be. It will be difficult enough to stop a run by unallocated account holders on the bullion banks, without forcing a cash-payout amnesty. But if the central banks themselves cannot supply the necessary bullion to prevent this, the prospect of a total collapse of paper money will be staring us all in the face.

Jim Rickards har nyligen intervjuats av tyska Chaostheorien.de där han ger sin syn på varför centralbankerna talar så tyst om guld. Läsning rekommenderas.

Här är ett utdrag från artikeln:

CTWhat do you think is the Bundesbank exactly doing in the gold market, or what things done by others in the gold market is the Bundesbank facilitating?

JR: I don’t know. I know that is one of the most closely kept secrets of central banks. They like to say that they don’t have gold activities and they like to denegrate the role of gold in international financial transactions. But in fact, they are active. We have seen some evidence recently. It was pointed out in the last annual report of the Bank for International Settlements, the BIS based in Basle, Switzerland. There was a footnote in the financial statements, showing at least several hundred tonnes of gold repurchase agreements, basically gold loans.vi We know that the BIS acts as the agent of its members, which includes Germany and the United States.

So there is central bank gold activitiy going on through the facilities and intermediation of the BIS, there is definately proof of that, but we don’t know exactly which countries are behind it. Whether it’s the United States or Germany, I don’t have any information on that. But they are the two largest holders and there is central bank activity going on through the BIS, so one might assume that the United States and Germany are involved, but I don’t have direct evidence for that, we have just indirect evidence.

CT: As you have mentioned, central banks are secretive in general and why do you think in particular when it comes to gold?

JR: Because when you try to manipulate the market, the more secrecy the better.

CT: Yes, and you think they are manipulating the market?

JR: Yes, I think they have been at least for sixty years. The central banks don’t consider it manipulation, they consider it part of their job or part of policy, but I think from a market perspective you can best understand it as a form of market manipulation.

Vi har vid ett flertal tillfällen den senaste tiden tagit upp att vi sannolikt kommer att få se en hel del volatilitet framöver när guld och silver går in i nästa uppgångsfas. Jim Sinclair nämnde t ex i en intervju med KWN nyligen att han såg framför sig svängningar i guld under en och samma dag på 100 dollar inom kort.

Nedan är ett urklipp från en intervju med den mycket framgångsrike Rick Rule, som förresten nyligen sålt sitt investmentbolag till ingen mindre än Eric Sprott, där han ger sin syn på just volatilitet och ger lite tips om hur man kan utnyttja detta som investerare, istället för att gripas av panik för att den stora ‘pappersvinst’ man hade en dag har förvandlats till en förlust nästa dag.

Här är ett urklipp från intervjun med Rick:

I can’t guarantee anything with regards to energy prices; I have my superstitions. I can’t guarantee anything about oil prices. I can’t guarantee anything about gold prices. I can guarantee this: the next two years we’re going to experience unbelievable volatility—unbelievable volatility. I believe—to lay my cards out on the table—that we are half or two-thirds of the way through a commodities supercycle. I think we are in a secular bull market; I think the broad economy is in a secular bear market. I think the collision between a secular bull market and a secular bear market is going to resemble the collision of two very large weather systems. And I believe we are in for a period of just absolutely unbelievable turbulence.

In the last couple of months, we have seen 20% or 25% upsurge in precious metals prices. For those of you who are predisposed to believe that precious metals prices were going to go up, this doesn’t feel like volatility to you. It feels like a rational or justified response to your brilliance; believe me, some of this is volatility. For some reason, people aren’t so sanguine about 20% down moves as they were about 20% up moves, but we’re going to get a lot of both of these, and I suspect that over the next two years that 20% moves are going to be considered “tame” moves.

I think we are going to see 30% moves and 40% moves and 50% moves that are attributable solely to volatility, not to underlying events. The underlying events are already baked in the cake. Specifically, I think we’re going to see moves in the junior market up and down of 20% for no reason whatsoever simply because in the near term there are more buyers than there are sellers or more sellers than buyers. I think the probability of 50% moves in both directions—let’s put it differently; I think 50% moves are probable rather than possible.

Now what does this mean for you? Given that volatility is going to occur—in my mind—you have two choices: You can accept it, you can embrace and you can use it or you can get waxed. Those are your two choices. Our theme here has been contrary or victim, the choice is yours, and that’s the way it works with volatility.

What is volatility? Well, in markets, what volatility is is a series of repeated sales. Buying goods on sale is always preferable to buying goods at retail. Volatility will give you precisely the opportunity to do that. Volatility does something else for you, too; it gives you the ability to mark up the goods you bought on sale and sell them to other people for a price that is substantially dearer than the price that you had to pay.

But in order to do that you have to manage your own temperament; you have to be disciplined; you have to pay attention to the reality, not the noise of the market. It’s human nature when you buy a stock for $2 and see it go to $4 that a couple of pleasant circumstances occur. In the first instance, you feel smart; that’s nicer than feeling stupid. In the second instance, when you see it on your statement, you like that stock, it went up, that stock gives you pleasure. It is fighting that instinct that causes you to make money. If a stock goes up, if a stock doubles, for any other than truly spectacular reasons, you need to understand as a consequence of doubling, the stock is precisely half as attractive as before it went up. The fact that it went up makes it less attractive on a going-forward basis. It is dearer, and you have to fight your tendency to like the stock that’s gone up. You have to make yourself take profits.

At the same time, the stock that you liked at $1 falls to $0.50; when you look at that stock on your statement, it makes you feel stupid. It’s more pleasant to feel smart than stupid. Feeling stupid is unpleasant. You see this stock on your statement, which may be a bargain, but to you it’s a dog. It’s a mistake; evidence of your own failings and frailty. Never mind my failings and frailty. Although, if nothing else has changed, it is precisely twice as attractive at $0.50 than it was at a $1. Most people’s temptation will be to sell the stock that’s twice as attractive rather than hold the stock that’s twice as attractive.

The nature of profiting from volatility is being on the other side of the trade. When panic is in the market and good companies are priced down, you have to have the courage not only to stay the trade, but in fact, increase the bet. During periods of time when you are completely sanguine and really aggressive, you need to sort of shake yourself by the throat and say I need to take some profits here. Everybody remembers how bullish they felt in 2006; everybody has to remember that we all confused the bull market for brains, and everybody has to remember how they felt in September, October, November of 2007 when the market went no bid. We didn’t feel so smart then. Had we simply felt a little less smug in 2006 and a little more aggressive in 2007, we would all be substantially wealthier than we are today.

Bear that in mind because this market is going to be extraordinarily turbulent and extraordinarily volatile, and it will give you extraordinary opportunities as a consequence either to make or lose money. Whether you make or lose money will not be a function of the market. Volatility is not a risk; it is a tool. The risk is located east of one of your ears and west of the other. It will be a function of your response to the volatility whether the next two years are extremely pleasant for you or extremely unpleasant for you.

Hade knappt hunnit skriva färdigt om Bart Chiltons officiella bekräftelse att JP Morgan kontrollerar 40% av silvermarknaden förrän hela silver-bloggosfären talade om att en källa uppgett för Financial Times att JP Morgan i det tysta har minskat sina korta positioner i silver.

Här är ett utdrag:

JPMorgan has quietly reduced a large position in the US silver futures market which had been at the centre of a controversy about its impact on global prices for the precious metal.

The decision by JPMorgan was an attempt to deflect public criticism of the bank’s dealings in silver, a person familiar with the matter said. The person added that the bank’s position in silver would from now on be “materially smaller” than in the past.

Men artikeln i Financial Times verkar inte vara något annat än ett PR-trick från JP Morgans sida för att få marknaden att tro att de minskat sina positioner och därmed inte bli attackerade av investerare som känner blodvittring. JP Morgans korta positioner i silver är på tog för stora för att de skall ha kunnat minska dem tillräckligt mycket utan att driva upp priset mycket mycket högre än till 30 dollar.

Så här uttryckte sig en person i ett forum:

A desperate PR stunt to make traders think that they have covered most of it and were the reason for the runup in price. Therefore they are imlying prices will now fall. Trsut me , there is now way they cold have possibly covered 200 MM + ounces of silver without a substatial drop in open interest. Open interest is at a new record. More lies from JPM ….they must be REALLY REALLY desperate right now to try this stunt.

Här är en kommentar från ZeroHedge:

In the latest example that virtually every conspiracy theory is almost always inevitably proven to be fact, the Financial Times reports that JP Morgan, the firm targeted by thousands of “tin foil hat” wearing, conspiratorially-oriented “gold bugs”, has cut back on its US silver futures. “JPMorgan has quietly reduced a large position in the US silver futures market which had been at the centre of a controversy about its impact on global prices for the precious metal.” And in what can only be considered an unprecedented victory for all those who have over the past year agitated to putting JP Morgan out of business, most recently spearheded by the likes of Mike Krieger and Max Keiser, by forcing a massive short squeeze on its commodities trading desk, we learn that “the decision by JPMorgan was an attempt to deflect public criticism of the bank’s dealings in silver, a person familiar with the matter said. The person added that the bank’s position in silver would from now on be “materially smaller” than in the past.” Of course, the latter is pure and total bullshit: as Bart Chilton indicated over the weekend, it is JP Morgan who at one point or another (and possibly very recently) controlled as much as 40% of the silver market, via a massive short. Attempting to make others believe that this short could be covered without pushing the price of the silver metal to over $100/ounce is an indication of either how stupid JPM believes the general population to be, or just how desperate the firm is to end the ongoing short squeeze onslaught. Either way, we are confident that this first unprecedented confirmation that a) JPM is indeed massively short silver and b) that it is hurting bad, will merely redouble efforts to put the world’s biggest financial company out of business. Lastly, this means that silver is about to really blast off as the push to really hurt JPM takes off in earnest.

Och här är en kommentar från GATA:

As you read with delight tonight’s Financial Times story about the difficulty in which J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. apparently has found itself with silver, it may be worth remembering the remark variously attributed to those most cynical statesmen Metternich and Talleyrand during the Congress of Vienna, which reorganized Europe in 1815. Told by an aide that the Russian ambassador had just died, Metternich — or Talleyrand — supposedly responded: “I wonder what his motive was.”

Tonight’s FT story, reporting that Morgan Chase has substantially reduced its silver futures position, is attributed to an anonymous source, “a person familiar with the matter.” Of course it is unlikely that anyone outside Morgan Chase itself would be so familiar with the matter, just as it is unlikely that anyone except Morgan Chase itself would want such information, or misinformation, to be broadcast as widely as the FT could broadcast it.

The FT story acknowledges that Morgan Chase means to “deflect public criticism” of its silver dealings, and at least that much is plausible. But as the himself pseudonymous Tyler Durden remarks tonight at Zero Hedge, any suggestion that Morgan Chase now has covered its silver shorts is “pure and total” effluent. If Morgan Chase really had covered its silver shorts, the investment bank could say so itself, on the record, and not have to operate through the usual compliant plants at the FT. But then, of course, Morgan Chase would have some liability in lying.

Som regelbundna läsare vet så har vi den senaste tiden hållit ögonen på koppar, som varit nära att bryta ut efter en längre tids konsolidering. Denna vecka verkar det som om vi mycket nära en bekräftelse om en sk ‘breakout’ som vi väntat på, då koppar dels handlades över den viktiga 4 dollar-nivån i princip hela veckan och dels att veckografen för koppar stängde på en all-time-high. Tidigare under veckan fick vi även se nya ‘intraday’ såväl som dagshögsta-noteringar för koppar. Starka tekniska signaler med andra ord.

Om det visar sig att koppar är på väg att påbörja en stor uppgång är det också mycket positivt för silver, som vi strax skall se. Diagrammet nedan är hämtat från LeMetropoleCafe och visar utvecklingen för koppar de senaste 10 åren och nedanför utvecklingen för silver under samma period.

Här är en kommentar till diagrammet:

As the graph clearly shows, every great run up in copper over the last 10 years has proved almost equally positive to silver. To note especially, on the 2 occasions when copper broke out from lengthy periods of consolidation (mid 03 and mid 05), it’s price vaulted by no less than circa 100% within a 6-8 month time frame. On each occasion silver sustained moves of a similar magnitude, almost mirroring it’s orange cousin!

Another point of major significance that is clearly depicted in the graph, is that any positive movement in the price of copper is almost always positive for the price of silver. In other words, it is very difficult, given the historic correlation between the 2 metals, to envisage a scenario where copper could rise in price and silver fall!

Taking all of this into account, I come back to my original comments and my growing expectation that we are about to see copper embark on a new uptrend, an uptrend that might very well see $600-800 within the first few months of 2011. Under such a scenario, there is every reason to expect silver to move higher in tandem, which would set it up for $40+ within the next 6 months.

Som regelbundna läsare vet så har guldveteranen Jim Sinclair sedan en lång tid tillbaka prognostiserat ett guldpris på 1650 USD innan den 14 januari 2011. För att prognosen skulle kunna bli verklighet satte Jim upp ett antal kriterier som alla behövde infrias, som han visualiserade i form av fem ‘gyllene pelare’.

De fem gyllene pelarna är:

- Allmänt erkänd topp i den amerikanska dollarn
- Tilliten till amerikanska papperstillgångar minskar
- Generell hausse inom råvarumarknaden
- Väl etablerat underskott i USAs budget, bytesbalans och handel
- Allmänt erkänd topp i långa amerikanska obligationer

När samtliga pelare är på plats menar Jim att uppgången för guld kan starta på allvar, med ett första stopp kring 1650 USD. Flera av pelarna har varit på plats under en längre tid, men en signal om att den sista pelaren (topp i långa amerikanska obligationer) varit på plats har inte varit entydig. Inte förrän nu.

En del av er har säkert redan noterat att de långa amerikanska obligationerna bokstavligen störtdök tidigare i veckan, det största raset på två år. Som högst var tioåringen uppe på 3,35%, att jämföra med 2,30% för bara ett par månader sedan. Ben Bernankes ogenerade erkännande förra söndagen att han planerar att trycka upp ytterligare ofantliga summor med dollar hjälpte inte till att hejda raset precis.

Den stora nedgången för långa obligationer har gjort Jim övertygad om att den femte pelaren nu är på plats:

This is the final pillar on gold as the debt rating of the currency of the US dollar becomes devalued by market forces.

Market forces beat any rating agency.

This is a market readjustment of the credit rating on the USA Inc.

If the 35 year uptrend line of the US long bond bull market dies, so does the dollar.

When gold ran into 1980, the yield on the 10 years was 14 7/8%.

Gold will trade at $1650 without any doubt.

Läsare som följt bloggen under en längre tid kanske kommer ihåg att vi tog upp de sjunkande amerikanska obligationsräntorna i april i år, då vi även publicerade följande graf som visar hur amerikanska obligationsräntorna har fallit i hela tre decennier sedan toppen för 30-åringen omkring 14% under 1981. Vi har bara väntat på att den nedåtgående trenden för räntorna skulle brytas och det ser alltså ut som om denna väntan nu definitivt är över. Detta signalerar stigande räntor under en lång tid framöver.

Nedan är en färsk graf över 30-åringen som tydligt visar att vi hade en topp i december 2008 och att vi efter ett kortvarigt rally i somras nu är på väg nedåt mot kritiska stödnivåer som, när de bryts, kommer att få stora konsekvenser för vårt finansiella system och kommer att skicka iväg guld och silver till oanade höjder.

Felix Zulauf fans kanske minns att han i en intervju med KWN innan sommaren förutsåg att de långa obligationsräntorna skulle ned och testa nivåerna från december 2008 för att sedan stiga. Ser alltså ut som han i princip fick helt rätt, även om det var en liten bit kvar ned till räntorna från december 2008 för att kunna bilda en klassisk dubbel-topp formation.

Här är en kommentar hämtad från LeMetropoleCafe angående raset på obligationsmarknaden:

I really believe that the laws of Mother Nature are finally beginning to kick in. The supply coming out of the Treasury is, has been and will be for as far as the eye can see, unrelenting. Foreigners know this and as I’ve written many times, I believe that foreigners will use the “bid” by the Fed as a way to extricate themselves from their “stuck position”. Buyers have obviously backed away from the auction process which is why The Fed has had to step up as a buyer, sellers are now overwhelming even this buying.

Och det här är vad ett antal marknadsaktörer hade att säga till Ambrose Evans-Pritchard i The Daily Telegraph häromdagen:

David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said it is hard to disentangle whether investors are shunning bonds because they expect US stimulus to boost growth next year, or whether they are losing patience with profligacy in Washington.

“If this is all about growth, that’s brilliant. But if yields are rising because people think Amirca’s fiscal situation is unsustainable, then its Armaggedon,” he said.

“The US can get away with this only because it is the world’s reserve currency. This would be totally unacceptable in any other country. We think these problems will start to crystallise for the US in the second half of 2011, once the European debt crisis has stabilised,” he said.

The warnings were echoed by Li Daokui, a rate-setter for China’s central bank. “The focus of the market is still in Europe, but we must be aware that the US fiscal situation is much worse than in Europe,” he said.

Stephen Lewis from Monument Securities said the bond rout is a sign that Washington can no longer take global markets for granted. “We have reached the limits of tolerance for budget deficits. There is a feeling around the world that nobody in Washington is paying any attention to the implications of what they are doing, but there is a very real risk that this will backfire if it causes mortgage rates to keep going up,” he said.

“At the same time we’ve seen a loss of confidence in Fed strategy. There is a feeling that the Fed doesn’t care about inflation — in fact, wants more of it — and that is certainly not in the interest of bondholders,” he said.

Att kinesiska talesmän och rådgivare talar om att den statsfinansiella situationen är värre i USA än i Europa, som vi även skrev om häromdagen, är en tydlig signal om hur allvarlig situationen verkligen är. Från Kinas håll talade man om att dollarn var säker i 6-12 månaders tid medan fokus fortfarande ligger på problemen i Europa. Men bedömare menar att detta enbart är ett försök av Kina att prata upp dollarn så att man kan passa på att sälja dollar till intet ont anande köpare. Snarare är det så att situationen är så allvarlig att dollarn bara har veckor eller ett fåtal månader kvar innan nästa kraftiga nedgång tar vid.

Här är en kommentar från LeMetropoleCafe om det kinesiska uttalande om att dollar är säker de kommande 6-12 månaderna:

I don’t care what anyone out there in the land of financial analysis has to say, the Chinese are either directly selling, or indirectly hedging, their massive position in the U.S. dollar/Treasury bonds. That statment confirms this. Let’s see, he says the dollar and T-bonds will be stable/rally for a year. ROFLMAO. This guy clearly has borrowed a page from Bill Gross’ script in which he expresses a view via CNBC to the world on the bond market while at the same time selling into the bid his comments create. I’ve witnessed this first-hand as a bond trader in the 1990′s. The indirect hedging would be via China’s well-known aggressive purchasing of basic commodities, especially industrial metals, and its now well-understood aggressive accumulation of gold and silver.

Fotnot: ROFLMAO betyder ‘Rolling On the Floor Laughing My Ass Off’

Och så här uttryckte sig en källa till King World News om den farsartade situationen på den amerikanska obligationsmarknaden på torsdagen:

It’s all about the bond auctions, the bond fell off a cliff. In the derivatives market you’ve got JP Morgan playing the bond market at the behest of the Fed, going long 30 years versus selling short-term paper. They buy 30 year paper and then immediately hedge themselves by selling the 30, 60 and 90 day paper. It’s how they keep interest rates down, it’s how you do it. The only reason interest rates are not in double digits in the US is because of this game. These guys are short front month paper. If this (the bond market) actually fell much longer, JP Morgan could be wiped out, I mean they would be liquidated. The Fed cannot allow them to do that. We’re witnessing history here.

Behöver man säger mer. Hoppas ni också kan se samma finansiella tsunami som väntar precis runt hörnet. Köp guld!

Avslutar det här långa men viktiga inlägget med en frispråkig kommentar, återigen hämtad från LeMetropoleCafe:

We are not there yet (the tipping point) but as rates go higher we get closer and closer to THE day where the “tipping point” arrives in the U.S.. This will be accompanied by a Dollar collapse and probably at least a $200 day in the Gold market. You will not need anyone to spell it out for you when it arrives, you will know it. No matter how much Gold, Silver, food, bullets and prayers you have stored away, once THE day arrives I assure you the phrase “OH SHIT!” will bounce around your mind like a strobe light!

I have no idea “when” this day will arrive but I do know that mathematically it has been written in indelible ink on the calendar of history. If you watch nothing else, all you need to know is what the Dollar, Treasury market and Gold does on a daily basis to know where we stand on this road to Hell. Forget about stocks and real estate as they will be disasters in real terms for quite some time to come. A 2+ point drop in the DXY, .50 basis point rise in Treasuries and $100 move in Gold will signify that control has been lost and the panic has begun in earnest. Just remember that fear is always a greater emotion than greed and causes exponentially faster moves in asset markets. Don’t blink because this will start and be done in possibly less than a 2 week time span and life in the rear view mirror will be nothing more than a memory. A GLOBAL change in lifestyle and standard of living is coming!

Ni kanske kommer ihåg den asiatiska källa som i en intervju för inte så länge sedan talade om en kommande ‘short squeeze’ i silver. Kanske kommer ni då ihåg att samma källa mer eller mindre prickade in den explosiva uppgången i silver som tog upp priset till runt 30 dollar. Samma källa har ännu en gång uttalat sig via KWN och låter meddela att de underliggande fundamentala faktorerna för guld är så explosiva att asiatiska köpare kommer att skapa en liknande ‘short squeeze’ som för silver, vilket kommer att driva upp priset med 150 dollar inom 5 veckor.

Här är ett par urklipp från intervjun:

A bunch of the weak hands are now on the short side of this market. We are very close to a floor because of the massive Asian buying. People have to remember these Asian buyers are now controlling the gold and silver markets, it is not the little guy.

Money flowing out of bonds is going into precious metals. So what they are doing is trying to paint the tape and make it look like a double-top in gold, with silver also retreating. Open interest went up into the decline, this is a gift (the decline). Asian buyers are laughing, we’re like a cartoon to them. They cannot believe how orchestrated this is.

All that’s happening here is the Fed is freaking out because the bond market is collapsing and they want to indicate that everything is fine, and certainly that precious metals is not your alternative. Meanwhile, the Asians will continue to buy any dip and keep adding to their position. For what it is worth, Jim Rickards is correct, the Asians are doing their buying through secret agents.

As far as the gold market is concerned, gold will be $150 higher from here within five weeks.

Med tanke på hur rätt källan hade sist så ser jag ingen anledning att tvivla på att denne får rätt även denna gång. Mer eller mindre. Källan är dessutom i mycket gott sällskap av tungviktare som Jim Sinclair som sedan länge förutspått ett pris på 1650 dollar i januari 2010. Ni kanske även kommer ihåg att vi nyligen skrev om att Bill Murphys extremt träffsäkra ‘Stalker’ källa ser ett guldpris på 1600 dollar i mars 2011. Det är värt att komma ihåg att om guld stiger till dessa nivåer så kommer silver att stiga ännu mer procentuellt sett.

Slutligen, här är en kommentar kring silver som rimmar väl med den kommentar jag gav imorse:

I think to go through $27 is virtually impossible, it would be suicide. I don’t think it will even get there. They are getting very cheeky even taking it below $28. They are not going to push it below $27 because they would just lose too much physical.

Peter Grandich har lång erfarenhet inom investering i framförallt guld och silver-relaterade bolag och med ett mycket bra ‘track-record’ dessutom. Han bedriver idag rådgivning och kapitalförvaltning åt förmögna idrottsmän i USA samt PR åt framförallt mindre guld och silver-relaterade bolag. Kan också vara relevant att nämna att han står GATA mycket nära.

Hursomhelst, Peter hade följande råd att ge efter kartellens fortsatta attack på guld och silver under onsdagens handel.

Want to note for now with gold around $1,370 as I type, any and all who have waited for one last chance to get on board before the train leaves the station – again, should grab onto the caboose immediately.

All aboard! Next stop, $1,500 before we exchange hearts on Valentines Day.

Peter har lyckats pricka in svängningarna i guld på ett mycket bra sett de senaste åren som jag följt honom så skulle definitivt ta till mig vad han har att säga. Han har ju dessutom sällskap av flera ‘tungviktare’ som t ex Jim Sinclair.

Om man kollar på silver så ser det tekniskt ut som om vi kan vara på väg att testa nivån för när priset senast bröt ut, vilket är kring 27,50 – 28 dollar. Denna vecka väntas inflationsstatistik från Kina och det kan vara värt att invänta denna innan eventuellt nya inköp. Skulle den bli för stor ökar risken för en kinesiskt räntehöjning, vilket kan pressa ned guld och silver på kort sikt. Skulle silver närma sig 27,50 dollar skulle jag dock personligen definitivt trycka på köpknappen.

Jim Rickards nämner i en färsk intervju med KWN att han fått information om en kund till en Schweizisk bank som nekades när han begärde att få ta ut guld på ett ton som han ägde fullt ut. Det var först efter att kunden involverade sin advokat och hotade med att gå ut till media som han till slut fick sitt guld – efter drygt 30 dagars väntan. Förutsatt att denna information är sann, vilket jag inte ser någon anledning till att den inte skulle vara, så tyder det stora dröjsmålet med själva leveransen på att banken inte hade detta guld i sin äga utan var tvungen att införskaffa detta.

Detta är en stor varningsklocka för vad som komma skall. Kan ni föreställa er vad som kommer att hända när det till slut uppdagas att banker och fysiska EFTer inte har det guld som de påstår att de har! Kom ihåg hur t ex personer som påstod att silver marknaden var manipulerad eller att Bernie Madoff bedrev ett pyramidspel blev förlöjligade och utskrattade för att sedan få rätt. Precis samma sak kommer att hända även i detta fallet.

Här är ett utdrag från intervjun:

I obviously can’t mention the names of the individuals or the banks involved, nor is there any need to. But just the bare bones which was reported to me was that an individual had a ton of gold, it’s about $40 million, so a $40 million position of physical and simply wanted the gold. Now this was not paper gold, it was not unallocated gold, it was not a gold future or a gold forward, gold option or Comex gold. This was just good old fashioned gold where he owned it outright, it was in effect a warehouse receipt is what they give you.

Vad passar bättre än följande hälsning från ‘Mr Gold’ Jim Sinclair en dag som denna när kartellen trycker ner guld och silver för allt vad tygen håller. Se det som ett köptillfälle.

My Dear Friends,

Gold is clearly on its way to $1,650 and beyond. I have told you for many years that there was no PRACTICAL solution to the problems created by OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors namely our beloved “banksters.”

By practical I meant a solution that itself would not cause more dislocations than the problem to which it was applied already has. Now you see political realities both in taxation and quantitative easing.

Friends, there is no practical way out of this problem – none. We are going to inflate and spend as the entire Western world financial/political managers again try to kick the can further down the road.

No further proof is required.

Regards,
Jim