Finansiella Insikter

Klassisk kartell-attack igår

Nytt all-time-high för guld (1538) och silver återigen nära 50 dollar samtidigt som dollarn är nära att notera nytt all-time-low gör det just nu mycket svårt för propagandaapparaten att dölja vad som håller på att ske.

Framförallt silver, som manipulerats kraftigt under så lång tid, har nu fullständigt brutit sig loss från kartellens grepp. Nu när ‘anden är ute ur flaskan’ och det är helt uppenbart att det knappt finns något fysiskt silver att tillgå kommer det bli i stort sett omöjligt för kartellen att återta kontrollen. Vi bevittnar därför början på slutskedet innan nollställningen.

Visst kommer kartellen fortfarande ha möjlighet att emellanåt trycka till metallerna rejält med papperspositioner, men den tid som kartellen köper för dessa papper för att hålla tillbaka uppgången blir bara kortare och kortare. Alla vet att det bara är en tidsfråga innan korthuset faller och vill därför ha fysisk metall till varje pris.

Ni har säkert noterat att gigantiska volymer silver, motsvarande hela 20% av allt Comex silver, omklassificerats till en icke levererbar kategori bara den senaste veckan!

Vi har fått höra en massa löjliga ursäkter (lögner) från CME men den VERKLIGA anledningen är att innehavare av pappersrättigheter till fysiskt silver till varje pris nu vill se till att detta silver inte levereras till någon annan för att undvika en Comex default, som de VET kommer att ske förr eller senare.

Vi har också sett hur vissa försäljare av fysiskt silver som Apmex just nu erbjuder gigantiska premier för att kunderna skall sälja sitt fysiska silver. Kanske kan Apmex senare sälja detta till JPM för en saftig premie då JPM behöver allt fysiskt silver de kan få tag på för att undvika en default?

Skulle det vara sant så skulle även följande utdrag från SGS, som kom från en anonym källa igår, förvärra situationen ytterligare för kartellen som kanske kommer tvingas till att betala ut ännu större kontantpremier för att undvika en Comex default i maj:

In a stunning development yesterday 18,366 MAY GOLD CALL options were EXERCISED for futures contracts and 21,721 MAY SILVER CALL options were EXERCISED for futures. If these are not settled in a backroom cash deal for large premiums a default is on the horizon.

Samtidigt kan man läsa rapporter om att t ex JP Morgan och Deutche Bank i tysthet t ex köpt på sig stora positioner platina för att själva sko sig på den stora rushen efter fysiska metaller som väntar runt hörnet. De VET att det, liksom för guld och silver, sålts gigantiska mängder med pappersplatina och att priset kommer att stiga till skyarna när de som trodde de ägde fysisk metall bara sitter på en värdelös pappersposition.

Att bankerna inte går efter guld och silver beror givetvis på att det bara skulle förvärra kartellens möjligheter att hålla illusionen om ett välmående fiatsystem vid liv och skulle därför inte gillas av t ex Fed och ECB.

Om alla sovande människor bara visste hur otroligt korrupt och riggat systemet verkligen är…

Den som bättre vill förstå betydelsen av vad som nu sker på silvermarknaden kan jag rekommendera följande artikel: Short Sellers Now Screaming About a Buy Side Silver Conspiracy

Beskedet från FOMC och inte minst presskonferensen med Ben ‘Pinnochio’ Bernanke (eller Printocchio som han också kallas) visade på det vi vetat sedan länge – Federal Reserve har inga som helst planer på att sluta med sina kvantitativa lättnader eftersom de inte har något annat val om de inte vill att det finansiella systemet skall kollapsa.

Precis som bl a Jim Richards har talat om har Fed för avsikt att fortsätta med återinvesteringar från den gigantiska portföljen, vilket blir en fin övergång till QE3.

Marknaden lät sig heller inte luras av Ben Bernankes usla lögner om bl a dollarn under presskonferensen utan insåg ganska snabbt att QE3 kommer att komma snabbare än de någonsin kunnat ana och skyndade med att lägga in nya order för guld och silver. Guld passade även på att notera ett nytt ATH på 1530 dollar.

Det här är vad Dan Norcini hade att säga:

The market has obviously interpreted the FOMC news and the comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke as a signal that they are unconcerned about the effect of their policy on the US Dollar, which is sinking further into the abyss. This has traders and investors moving strongly into the gold and silver markets, with gold soaring into a new all time high in nominal terms and silver shooting up a whopping 5%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar has now convincingly broken down below critical chart support near 74 on the USDX and looks on target to sink as low as 72. I have said it several times here on this site and over at jsmineset – if the Dollar breaks down below 72 on that chart and cannot recover that level within a couple of sessions, we will be witnessing the historic demise of the currency and the probable end of its role as the global reserve currency.

Thanks Ben and thanks to all the Fed governors whose foolish, inept, and short-sighted idiocy has set this nation on a path that will make the IMF prediction of its sliding into second place behind China, indeed come to pass. No nation ever kept its place of economic ascendancy by deliberately killing its own currency. An economically strong nation, with a solid manufacturing sector, the rule of law, an ethic of thrift, low taxes, reasonable regulation, etc, will by default have a strong currency.

The plight of the Dollar is now a commentary on the decline of our beloved nation. It speaks with a more pure voice than any analyst could ever aspire to and what it is crying is disheartening to an extreme for those with ears to hear it.

History has the advantage of being relatively objective in its analysis as it is removed from the passions of the era. It is with that in mind that I can confidently say it will render a harsh and severe criticism of those who led our nation and its monetary policy during this period as they presided over its decline.

Och här är en kommentar från Peter Schiff via KWN:

Ben Bernanke may deny that there is a causal relationship between his monetary policy and rising prices but the market knows differently. In fact when Ben Bernanke denies the relationship, then the expectation is that he is going to continue on his current monetary policy course which is the green light to buy gold, buy silver, buy oil, buy commodities, sell the dollar and that’s exactly what’s happening. That’s why the dollar is hitting new lows today.

You could see the dollar begin to fall as soon as the statement was released, and then the fall intensified when he (Bernanke) began opening up his mouth. He’s either lying or he’s incompetent or a combination of both, but neither inspires confidence in our country, our currency or our economy. I mean whenever Ben Bernanke opens his mouth you want to sell anything that is related to the United States.

They said they are going to continue to reinvest their maturing principle back into treasuries, so the Fed said they are basically not going to shrink their balance sheet and that’s inflationary on its own. Who are they kidding? The Fed is going to keep buying bonds because if the Fed doesn’t who else is going to do it? There is nobody who is going to buy them because the rates are too low. So the Fed is just talking, but anybody who understands reality can see through it. And obviously with the gold price soaring and the dollar plunging, a lot of people can see through it.

I think as early as this fall we could be in a dollar crisis because I expect the dollar to weaken throughout the summer. And if we don’t get a big bounce during the summer when they end QE2, which I don’t think they are going to end it but they might pretend they are ending it, if the market senses that the Fed is still printing money which they will be doing, the dollar I think could go into free fall. That is going to force the Fed’s hand and you are going to have really high interest rates and this economy is going to implode…but we have a phony economy that needs to implode.

Schiff om guld:

I think gold is going to have a big move. I think gold is underpriced right now. I don’t think this is going to be the move that wakes them (the public) up out of their coma, I think that move is coming. It’s going to be a much more spectacular move down the line.

Schiff om vad som kommer att krävas för guldgruvorna att börja röra på sig:

When this market senses that this gold rally is real. The gold bull market is 10 years old, you would think they would figure it out by now but there is more fear than greed in the gold market and you can see that in the mining stocks. So I think we are still early in the gold bull market.

Idag är det så dags för beskedet från Feds FOMC-möte, där vi väntas få signaler om att Fed har för avsikt att lätta på stimulanserna men att man inte vill gå för snabbt fram. Men som vi konstaterat så många tidigare så är det en omöjlighet för Fed att helt avsluta med sina stödköp av amerikanska statspapper, utan vi får sannolikt åtminstone se en övergång till återinvestering av portföljen innan ett nytt QE-program annonseras.

På den efterföljande presskonferensen, den första i sitt slag, kommer vi sannolikt att se en ny omgång med häpnadsväckande lögner från Ben som vägrar att sätta ett samband mellan skenande råvarupriser och kvantitativa lättnader. Här är 20 frågor till Ben Bernanke som vi borde få svar på men som vi troligtvis aldrig kommer att få höra ställas av den så kontrollerade amerikanska massmedian.

Det här är vad Jim Sinclair hade att säga inför beskedet:

Will they or will they not continue QE is not the question. They must, be it through the front or back door. The future of the dollar is what you need to know if you are to navigate this, the most violent upcoming part of the gold drama.

The dollar situation is damned if you do and damned if you don’t. A suspension of QE is negative MOPE that would impact the equity market, therein destroying the liquidity rally from March of 2009. The recovery is not getting serious traction regardless of the bliss of the media.

The US dollar would be hit hard by a collapse of this modest recovery that a suspension of QE would mandate. If QE is to continue, either front or back door, the dollar will remain under pressure.

Forget the media and blog commentary. The future of gold is all in the dollar. The US dollar has no future under present conditions.

Och här är några ord från Michael Pentio via KWN:

In an effort to bail-out his true master—the financial services industry–Bernanke is well along in the process of destroying the dollar and the middle class. Therefore, his press conference tomorrow will more be an effort to get Americans to “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” and in the manner of a svengali, convince the public that the inflation they are witnessing is just a mirage.

But the bottom line is that the Fed Funds rate will remain exceptionally low for an extended period of time and Bernanke’s balance sheet will not be allowed to decrease. As a consequence, the dollar will continue to fall and commodities will barely notice a hiccup.

However, there are some questions that Bernanke still needs to address:

· Which mandate takes precedence; full employment or stable prices? The housing market and GDP are double-dipping. And initial jobless claims are now rising along with inflation. So what battle are you going to fight?

· If you were to raise interest rates and sell the MBS and Treasuries on your balance sheet—thus lowering their value–would the Fed become insolvent?

· And lastly, “If raising interest rates in the middle of the last decade caused asset bubbles to pop and a global credit crisis to ensue, why would it be a different outcome this time around, since the overall level of debt in the nation remains at an all-time high?

Vi har flera gånger tidigare talat om och visat exempel på hur Financial Times hjälper kartellen att sprida propaganda och desinformation för att dämpa entusiasmen för guld. Följande artikel i helgen från FT om silver kommer därför inte som någon direkt överraskning, utan är snarare högst komisk.

Här är en kommentar från Bill Murphy:

The clueless author of the following article in the Financial Times really ticks me off. When the price of silver was $16.23 per ounce GATA told the CFTC and investment world about a real conspiracy, one that was eventually going to blow the silver market up because the likes of JP Morgan was shorting silver they did not own via the derivatives market … and lying to the CFTC, saying their short positions were hedged, which was the only justification for their massive 30,000 contract short position.

Well, here we are 13 months later and the price has soared to $46 and this bumblehead is stumbling around hypothecating about potential conspiracies in the silver market. This lightweight Farcy ought to be sent into the dumpster…

Kan inte annat än att hålla med.

Silver surge prompts conspiracy theorists

By Jack Farchy

Published: April 21 2011 10:23 | Last updated: April 21 2011 10:23

In 1980 it was the Hunt brothers. In 1998 it was Warren Buffett. And in 2011?

For anyone unversed in the history of the silver market, those dates refer to market squeezes that caused surges in the silver price. The talk among some conspiracy-minded traders and analysts is that something similar could be happening today.

It is easy to see why: during the past 12 months the price of silver has risen 154 per cent, outpacing gold (32 per cent), wheat (65 per cent), oil (45 per cent), and indeed almost any investment you’d care to mention.

Perhaps the most telling measure, the ratio between the price of silver and that of gold (ie the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver) has dropped to 33.5 times – after averaging 60-70 during the past decade.

The last time the ratio fell even close to this level was in 1998, when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway quietly accumulated a huge position in the silver market, driving prices up 90 per cent in a few months to what was then a 10-year high of $7.90. On Wednesday, silver hit $45.37.

Before that, the last time the ratio was below 40 was in the early 1980s, following the most notorious silver market squeeze – that of William Herbert Hunt and Nelson Bunker Hunt, two billionaire oil baron brothers.

Is something similar happening today?

The silver market is never short of a wild rumour. The difference this time, though, is that the conspiracy theories are being seriously considered by senior figures in the industry.

As one senior banker puts it: “I just do think it has the smell of somebody with a pretty significant buying programme … Silver is the sort of market that every decade attracts someone.”

The reason why the conspiracy theories have taken hold is because few traders or analysts can see a convincing reason for silver’s astonishing rise. According to data from consultancy GFMS, the silver market was in a surplus of 178m ounces last year.

Crucially, of course, that surplus was mopped up by investors. But visible investor positioning is hardly overwhelmingly positive – indeed, last week, even as silver prices rose, investors cut their bullish positions in the US futures market by 8.4 per cent.

Hence the conspiracy theories. Some of the whispers making the rounds in dealing rooms in London and Zurich include:

• A Russian billionaire with an eye for silver has been discreetly buying (for some reason Russia seems to be the most popular location of this putative billionaire – he or she could also be Middle Eastern or perhaps East Asian).

• There has been a secretive silver buying programme by the People’s Bank of China or some other central bank (but China is the favourite).

• Chinese traders are using silver imports as collateral to obtain credit in a similar way to copper – thus vastly inflating the country’s silver demand.

It is impossible to say if there is even a grain of truth in any of these tales. While some traders are taking them seriously, others believe the rise in prices is perfectly well explained by very strong, inelastic industrial demand plus extremely high retail demand in the US, India and China.

One explanation for why the silver market is confusing to many bankers and traders may be that they typically deal with large investors and so see little of the flow to retail investors and industrial consumers.

What is certain, however, is that with the view that silver is a speculative bubble so widespread, a sharp and painful correction can’t be ruled out.

Again, history may be informative. After the Hunt brothers’ squeeze in 1980, the price of silver collapsed 80 per cent in four months; the Hunts were later sanctioned for market manipulation and went bankrupt.

And following Warren Buffett’s silver play in 1998, the price of the metal dropped 40 per cent and Berkshire Hathaway recorded its worst annual results on record, relative to the S&P 500, in 1999.

Kräftgången för gruvbolagen fortsätter trots nya rekordnoteringar för guld och silver vilket som sagt sätter tålamodet bland framförallt nytillkomna gruvinvesterare på mycket stort prov. Även om det inte är HELA förklaringen så kan jag ändå bara säga – välkomna till en manipulerad och riggad marknad mina vänner!

Det kommer perioder, som dessa, när många, till blankarnas stora glädje, kommer att tvivla på om det någonsin kommer att ‘lossna’ och kasta in handduken. Är ni med i leken, så får ni leken tåla. För det gäller att ta sig igenom dessa plågsamma perioder för att ta del av den belöning som väntar. De som satsat på bra juniorer sitter sannolikt med uppgångar på flera hundra procent bara det senaste 12 månaderna, vilket sannerligen inte är illa.

Det här är vad den frispråkige Bill Holter hade att säga om dagens farsartade utveckling:

A brief commentary today regarding the bogus and I do mean BOGUS trading action in the metals and shares today. We have witnessed for 10+ years much manipulation, dirty, unethical and even illegal tricks to suppress anything metal, TODAY ABSOLUTELY TAKES THE CAKE!!! Gold was up $15 and Silver over $2 last night in Asia and held those gains until the N.Y. open and then BAM… they are both down now and the HUI is down 13. Ask yourself how that can possibly be? PAPER! That’s how! It will be interesting to see a massive increase in open interest for today’s trading as that would show NEW shorts entering for suppression.

THIS action is occurring immediately after 2 high ranking Chinese officials have said over the weekend that they would like to cut Dollar reserves by 2/3rds or roughly $2 Trillion. This is virtually impossible to accomplish but it does tell you they are no longer buyers. Japan will also obviously not be a buyer as they will need capital to rebuild the country, so now we have the # 1 and 2 owners and past buyers of Treasuries turned seller which leaves ONLY the Federal Reserve as the sole buyer. Can you say “Ponzi scheme exposed”!? THIS news is supposed to be Gold negative or Dollar positive? Not a chance and what a complete joke and farce! In a free market Gold would be up a minimum $100 today and Silver at least $3, they are not only because your friendly neighborhood “cabal” is trying to paint a “top” to scare the bejesus out of you.

NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS HERE, remain calm and collected with the knowledge that YOU have done the math and logic and that your positions in metal are correct. “They” absolutely have to throw everything they have at this market here and now to try to break it. The Dollar is collapsing because of fiscal and monetary policies but to continue the illusion “they” CANNOT allow Silver and Gold to get any more out of control. Maybe they actually get a correction going for a couple weeks, days or only for a few hours, IT DOES NOT MATTER ONE BIT! The game is over and anyone who can add 2+2 is in the process of figuring this out.

All I can say is sit back and relax about your metals positions because soon you will have more important things to worry about, like where to find available gasoline and food! THIS is coming soon, stay prepared.

Och här är en kommentar från Bill Murphy:

The action in the gold and silver shares is beyond a joke. Short term, due to hedge funds, a clueless public, or The Gold Cartel doing their pitiful thing, ANYTHING can happen. All I know is, as right as those of us on Planet GATA have been on gold and silver these past many years, we will be right on what is coming down the pike for the gold/silver shares. All that is needed is patience and, if you can, add to your positions on the dips.

Kan även varmt rekommendera att läsa följande förklaring från ‘Dave in Denver’:

I’ll Take A Crack At Explaining The Performance Of The Mining Shares

There’s been reams of discussion recently about the performance of the mining shares relative to the price of gold/silver. I believe a lot of the disappointment in the performance of the shares is because the metals have been hitting new highs almost every day now. But there are a lot of “levers,” or variables, that drive mining share valuation – not just metal in the ground multiplied out by the price of gold/silver. And make no mistake about it, the HUI and XAU have been hitting new all-time highs during this period, so anyone not making money in the mining shares should reassess their strategies and anyone not happy with their bounty will probably always be a malcontent.

But rather than let our views get overwhelmed by conpiracy theories and childish whining, let’s cut to the chase and just look at some numbers and market theory. I’m going to keep this simple for illustrative purposes. To begin with, the price of a stock at any given time largely reflects the current fundamental value, or instrinsic value, of the company plus some expection of the company’s future prospects. So if a mining stock is priced at $50, that value reflects everything that is currently known about the company and its industry fundamentals PLUS it contains some value that reflects what the market thinks will happen in the future. So for a solid mining stock at $50, that price contains the public knowledge that gold is at $1500 PLUS some “discounted value” for the expectation/probability that the price of gold will be higher in the future. So just because gold goes from $1400 to $1500, if the market thinks that $1500 is all we’ll see, the price of the stock won’t move. This is “rational expectations” theory in a nutshell and is good for explaining a large part of stock market valuations, everything else being equal.

Now, what I believe, and what has been the case for the duration of this 10+ year bull market, is that MOST of the market players do not understand gold or why it’s moving higher AND they believe gold has topped out every time it hits a new high. This is GREAT news for the minority contingency who DO understand the dynamics, because at some point the size of the market that does come to understand the market will grow larger and the cash pools flowing into the sector will grow at a geometric rate, accelerating the push higher in these mining stocks. I personally believe that we will see at least $5000 gold. But think about the small percentage of market players that actually believe $2000 is even possible. Probably less than 5%. The price of mining stocks reflects this huge imbalance between the “knowers” – gold bulls – and the skeptics – the 95% who think I’m nuts. This dynamic is part of what is known as the “efficient markets” hypothesis and I believe that the market is being very “inefficient” in its understanding of the precious metals. Because of this, and this view of the market has been proved correct for the past 10 years because the metals sector has substantially outperformed ALL other asset classes, I believe that there are still huge profits to be made in this sector up until the entire market has knowledge and understanding. THAT is when we will be in the bubble phase. Until then I believe there is still a lot of easy “information arbitrage” profits to be had.

There’s a lot of other factors at play as well. As my good friend and colleague “Jesse” has pointed out, there is a 50% correlation between the SPX and gold and a very high correlation between the SPX and the mining stocks. The SPX is about 3% below the high it hit in mid February. So if the mining stocks are lagging the performance of gold, a meaningful part of this lag can be attributed to the overall weakness in the stock market. You are doing yourself a disservice if you do not read his work on this: LINK

From a technical perspective, Dan Norcini wrote an excellent description of a “ratio” trade that is being played en masse in the hedge fund community, in which they go long a gold ETF and short the mining shares. This is an excellent piece that I believe explains a lot about what is going on: LINK Because I know from experience that big NYC hedge funds all travel in herds, I know that there is a “herd” of cash playing this trade and that most of the players do NOT know about, and could care less about, what gold is doing and why. Suffice it to say that there is a large pool of capital that is long gold/silver and short the mining stocks. Because the universe of mining stock shares is very illiquid compared to the broad stock market, the effect of a lot of cash shorting the shares will “exaggerate” the price pressure put on them. But of course, as Norcini points out, the reversal of this trade en masse will send the mining shares higher very quickly in violent fashion. So get ready for that ride because it will come.

Finally, there’s some other important “levers” that go into valuing mining stocks besides the price of gold and the amount of metal in the ground. The two biggest factors are cost and risk. Energy represents about 50% of the cost of actual mining. So a high production mining company’s expenses increase rapidly when the dollar declines rapidly and the price of oil appreciates rapidly. This fact is not lost on the market and is reflected in a lesser valuation multiple assigned to stocks in this industry. In addition, the cost of labor increases AND so do regulatory costs. Regulatory costs include taxes and environmental legislation.

And finally, and especially relative to 10 years ago, the political risk and costs associated with that factor have escalated substantially over the last 10 years. Just ask any mining company with operations in Venezuela or Bolivia. Although you can’t quantify this risk on paper, I guarantee anyone reading this that the market collectively will assign a discount factor to the sector based on political risk expectations. So, for example, the price of gold can move from $1000 to $1500, but if the market thinks a couple of countries in South America and Africa will either massively increase mining tariffs OR outright nationalize operations, this expectation will be reflected with relatively lower valuations in relation to a big move higher in gold. And trust me, as the price of gold continues to escalate, the risk that “have not” Governments seize the bounty increases. I promise you this is a factor in the performance of the shares.

Now having said all that – and please make no mistake about it – I am NOT saying that manipulation is not a sizable factor in the mining shares, it is my view that the price of gold/silver will continue to appreciate a LOT more rapidly than the true cost of energy, labor, regulation and geopolitical risk. AND if you have a carefully selected portfolio of large cap and small cap mining shares, you will make a fortune.

I will say that our fund has been weighted about 60/40 metal/miners since the beginning of the year because we felt that the price of the metal would outperform the shares on a risk/return basis. I will also say that if you have a VERY carefully picked selection of junior exploration mining stocks that you might get wealthy off of them. Most people, even those heavily involved in this sector, are not at all aware of the degree to which penny mining stocks shot up during the 1970′s. Many of the today’s junior mining stocks will have breath-taking moves over the next five years. Because junior miners do not have the cost of mining attached to their operations, the hope of the next massive discovery will eventually capture the imagination of the investing public and speculative money will eventually flood into the juniors. This is a wave that I know is coming and that I want to ride, especially since I believe we have picked some companies that have a good shot at actually finding some big discoveries (you learn a lot about selection and whom to talk to and whom to trust after doing this sector exclusively for 10 years).

We have the stock side of our fund weighted about 50/50 between juniors and large caps. The percentage in juniors will likely increase when we decide that the risks mentioned above have been overly discounted by the stock market and the miners are ready for another big move. In other words, we hope to get a little lucky with market timing but if we don’t we still will make a lot of money for our investors because of our junior mining stock exposure.

I hope this helps clarify what I believe is going on right now.

När marknaden öppnade på måndagen (även om en del börser fortfarande håller stängt) fullkomligt exploderade guld och framförallt silver, se grafen nedan. Högst betalt för silver är 49,67 dollar och det är inte omöjligt att vi kan få se det nominella rekordet strax över 50 dollar passerat inom kort, även om vinsthemtagningar nu sannolikt hänger i luften.

Guld har samtidigt avancerat upp till 1518 dollar, vilket är en hårsmån från Jim Sinclairs ‘ängel’ på 1521 där vi kan vänta oss vinsthemtagningar innan vi fortsätter upp mot 1600 dollar.

Bland anledningarna till den kraftiga uppgången nämns en rapport om att Kina vill skära ner på sina amerikanska statspapper med uppemot två tredjedelar, som vi twittrade om igår.

De relativt få som ‘vaknat upp ur sin djupa dvala’ och ser världen som den verkligen är, och inte som vi vill att den skall vara, förundras nästan dagligen över hur människor runt omkring fortsätter att med hull och hår köpa de lögner som vi konstant matas med av De Styrande. Och de som någon gång försökt inleda en konversation kring ämnet med dessa sovande personer har sannolikt fått lära sig den smärtsamma vägen att det är helt omöjligt att väcka någon som inte vill bli väckt. Vi har alla en fri vilja, och det är oerhört viktigt att denna respekteras, oavsett om vi tycker att det är ‘för den andra personens bästa’.

En del personer har kanske öppnat ena ögat och ser en del lögner, ofta de som är relativt enkla att identifiera ur ett ‘vetenskapligt perspektiv’. Samtidigt vägrar de bestämt att öppna båda ögonen och därmed tvingas att se hela den obekväma sanningen, utan väljer istället att fortsätta köpa merparten av alla lögner. Dessa människor är inte sällan väldigt ‘pålästa’ och är ofta allmänt betraktade som ‘intellektuella’. Det är just detta intellekt som tyvärr också förhindrar dem att kunna se hela sanningen, eftersom intellektet bl a ställer krav på bevisföring för sanningen som är omöjliga att producera. De som vaknat upp helt och som en gång försökt inleda en diskussion med denna grupp människor gör ofta aldrig om det igen, eftersom oviljan att öppna båda ögonen är så oerhört stark (medvetet eller undermedvetet) att de inte drar sig för något för att smutskasta eller förlöjliga ‘budbäraren’ på olika sätt. Inte sällan brukar orden ‘konspirationsteori’ eller ‘foliehatt’ användas som ett bekvämt sätt att fly undan. Skulle de t ex läsa dessa ord skulle de sannolikt kategoriskt och reflexmässigt avfärda det hela som ‘ren smörja’, utan att ens reflektera det minsta över vad som sägs.

Den stora frågan blir givetvis varför i hela friden människor inte skulle vilja veta sanningen. För vem skulle inte vilja veta att vi blir matade lögner? Jag skulle vilja påstå att vi får svaret på denna oerhört centrala fråga om man läser följande inlägg från ‘Cognitive Dissonance’. Det är bland det bästa inlägg jag läst på oerhört länge, eftersom det ger svar på så oerhört mycket. I Den kommande Finansiella Tsunamin diskuterar vi t ex vår fantastiska oförmåga att se bubblor. Här har vi svaret.

Låt er inte avskräckas av att inlägget kan kännas både långt och, kanske för en del, en smula ‘svårsmält’. Fyll upp en stor kopp kaffe och ta er lite tid att både läsa och begrunda under påskledigheten. Det här ämnet är OERHÖRT VIKTIGT för att både förstå hur både vår värld fungerar och inte minst hur VI MÄNNISKOR FUNGERAR.

Den som tror sig vara ‘fri från synd’ kommer sannerligen att få sig ett rejält uppvaknande av den smärtsamma påminnelsen om att vi ALLA till varje pris vill undvika att ta tag i våra egna brister och problem utan istället väljer att fly undan och skylla på andra.

Har gjort en del markeringar med fet text som jag personligen tycker är värd att reflektera lite extra över.

Ser fram emot era egna reflektioner.

An Inconvenient Truth – The Truth Shall Not Set Us Free

By Cognitive Dissonance

There is a widely held belief among those who wish for ‘the truth’ to be exposed that once this is accomplished the insanity will begin to unravel and a new day will dawn. Unfortunately this belief is erroneous, delusional even, and by itself also a part of the insanity. The uncomfortable and extremely inconvenient truth is that ‘truth’, regardless of where it originates or whether it’s really truth or not, will never set us free because the official lies are not the ultimate source of our bondage. Instead the lies are just a small part of the overall control system, a system that relies upon our willing (some would say informed) consent not only to exist but to endure.

Hidden somewhere deep down inside any discussion of true and false statements by politicians, the Bureau of Lies and Statistics (BLS), psyops and disinformation programs, WikiLeaks or any other governmental, corporate or individual propaganda is a simple and fundamental truth that’s widely known but carefully ignored. We are being lied to by hundreds of entities about dozens of different subjects, all for the purpose of maintaining or increasing control and power over the masses. The truth of these fundamental lies is all around us and yet we are still not free.

The only way a relatively small nucleus of people can control a much larger population is through psychological manipulation regardless of whether it’s by way of brutality or baubles. Spending our days minimizing, dismissing or bargaining with these controlling lies is simply the process we use to avoid dealing with our own internal self deception. This is also a well understood and universal truth that is self evident, obvious even, to those who wish to honestly look. Yet it is denied as well.

We hide this fact from ourselves by differentiating between big and small lies, from their evil propaganda and our harmless little tales. And we always tell ourselves the ultimate controlling lie, that we don’t really ‘lie’ so much as we tell small fibs and half truths in order to feel better or to get through the day. We want to believe that we are different from ‘them’, that we know we aren’t really lying because we know ourselves and thus can’t lie. We all deceive ourselves into believing that to ourselves we are true.

The ugly truth is that we expend a tremendous amount of energy each day maintaining our extensive network of internal denial and self deception. The result is a mishmash of fact, fiction and fantasy we call our world view and the act of denial itself becomes such an integrated component of us that for the most part it’s seamless and nearly invisible. The control system enables our denial by feeding us a constant stream of ‘news’ and information that serves to reinforce this internal narrative while massaging our confirmation and normalcy biases.

Why do we need ‘proof’ of something that’s self evident, of something we know to be true? Exactly what sort of proof would satisfy us that we’re being systematically and consistently lied to? More to the point, what would we do once the perfect proof is offered that we would refrain from doing without it? So many of us fall into the trap of demanding specific and infallible proof before we’ll ever consider changing our beliefs, an almost impossible condition to meet and precisely why we require it. Others demand that the liars admit they are lying. What then? Do we forgive them for their past transgressions so we won’t need to confront them (or ourselves) the next time it happens?

What proof of truth (or falsity) do we need to receive in order to be absolutely certain? And will we ever receive enough proof to overcome our aversion to taking a stand and declaring that enough is enough? All of these questions are reasonable queries to ask, but we avoid them like the black plague because following them to their logical conclusion would sweep away all our self deceptions and delusions. Asking these questions, then candidly answering them, would force us to be honest with ourselves, an outcome we collectively and studiously avoid.

Clarity of Vision

Contrary to popular belief clarity of vision, which is what truth and proof is supposed to provide for us, is the last thing we want because clarity removes any remaining plausible deniability we might cling to in order to justify hiding within the faceless herd. Clarity compels action in the same manner that a clear and present danger compels action. If we don’t act once we finally have clarity, especially after demanding it for years, then we must confront our own lack of moral courage. In effect we either deal with this cognitive dissonance or we kick the can down the road and bury our denial in another layer of justification and rationalization.

For example, let’s say you’re startled awake at 3 AM by the apparent sound of someone breaking into your home. Are you going to roll over and fall back to sleep until you receive absolute “proof” of a break in or are you going to react to the information at hand no matter how limited it might be? While the answer might be obvious, the question is so simple it’s often dismissed as silly. I’m not talking about confronting the potential intruder, but simply acknowledging his or her presence instead of demanding more proof before rousting yourself from bed. Of course you’d acknowledge the potential break-in. Then you’d begin to react accordingly.

What it really comes down to is not whether we receive enough proof to act, but rather how close we perceive (or deny) the danger to be in order to overcome our reluctance to deal with whatever it is we are avoiding. The noise downstairs demands our immediate attention because it’s coming from within our home at a time of night when we’re most vulnerable. It’s hard to ignore this frightening situation. However as long as we can successfully deny proximity we can avoid the singularity of confrontation regardless of the actual circumstances.

And a skilful manipulator will encourage our denial using a variety of tools and methods. Consider that the Nazis took deliberate steps to enable the concentration camp inmates to remain in denial about their inevitable destruction. Most knew what was really going on, but the façade was convincing enough to enable just enough denial of proximity to keep the majority calm and under control. This was mutually beneficial for both parties involved, allowing the Nazi’s to use very few guards relative to the large number of inmates. Our master(s) benefit from our denial as well, thus they expend large amounts of energy to enable our denial rather than just forcing the issue.

It appears to me that those who are unaware of, or outright reject, their inner spiritual connection are more likely to engage in fantastical thinking and denial framing all in an effort to deny proximity. Let me make it clear here that I’m not talking about a God or religious entity, but more like a centering or recognition of our presence and purpose within the cosmos.

This ‘knowing’ helps us to maintain a realistic perspective and inner calm when others become deer in the headlights. Our masters are experts at frightening us with continuous fear based mental images of dangerous boogiemen while promising us that the danger will never be proximate to us as long as we do as we’re told. And we play along because doing so enables our own internal dishonesty.

In the case of the downstairs burglar it rapidly progesses well beyond clear and present danger and has morphed into red alert proximity since we’re trapped upstairs and can’t leave without descending the stairs and moving even closer to the very danger we’re trying to avoid. But the insanity coming out of Washington, Europe, Libya, Japan or wherever today’s madness is emanating from is somewhere way over there, meaning not proximate to us and thus easier to push aside and deny.

Learned Helplessness

Until that is the danger is proximate and can no longer be denied. Of course once the obvious can no longer be pushed aside the next step is to trot out another inconvenient truth redefined in the form of an excuse, that the problem is so big that we can’t do anything about it. Intellectually we declare we’re quadriplegics trapped in our own wheelchairs and unable to do anything about the situation. This self victimization is called learned helplessness and it’s an example of how we actively participate in our own impotence and subjugation. And its use is not restricted to the uneducated and poor. In fact it’s a highly refined intellectual tool of the educated and professional classes who twist our self victimization into superiority or entitlement impulses.

What we really want, what we so desperately seek, is for someone else to shoulder the personal and emotional risk that comes with taking responsibility. We definitely want the good outcome, just not the sweat, tears and pain that might also come with it. Our insistence that we know exactly what happened, the so-called truth, followed by our never ending demand for even more proof, is simply our psychological defense to any assault upon our carefully constructed world view that we are just helpless victims and powerless to do anything except to be the perfect injured party and take care of ourselves. This is also the perfect excuse to abandon any sense of obligation to neighbor or community.

The beauty of being the unfortunate victim, of being a planned and intentional failure even if that plan is on a subconscious level, is that this condition is easily accomplished and usually requires little to no active participation on our part. Thus our needed plausible deniability comes from doing nothing, which then reinforces our apathy and justifies our inaction. It just doesn’t get any better than this. All that’s left to do is to construct an intellectual shield stout enough to justify our inaction, child’s play after decades of personal experience shifting blame to the spouse, sibling, boogie man, politician, dog or boss. Our ego immediately takes over and skillfully massages our lying eyes and guilt feelings.

Lost to Ourselves

It’s important for the reader to understand that I’m not necessarily speaking of professional, career or even political failure when I address the concept of being a planned failure. Ultimately these are all artificial constructs, fantasy representations of our denied inner being, the outward manifestation of an ‘us’ we wish to project to those around us for a variety of reasons and purposes. Instead what I’m referring to is our inner being, our spiritual entity, our essence, that part of us that might be called the soul which only we answer to.

This unique sanctuary, our own safe haven or refuge we can flee to when we wish to engage in contemplation and reflection, can be the source of our inner strength and moral courage in the face of hostility or our pitiful failure to be a moral person and spiritual entity. Because we cannot hide from ourselves while visiting our inner being, for the patently self deceptive this is a place to avoid at all costs.

The external ‘us’ often has little connection to our true inner self unless it is deliberately pursued and sought after. Our inner being doesn’t come looking for you or me, but rather the other way around. I have found that the more superficial our outer skin is, the further away we are from connecting to our inner truth and meaning, often described as our centering, knowing or intuition.

The weaker the connection to our inner self the more desperate we become to believe the self validating lie that if only we knew what really happened with unerring proof it would expose our external tormentor (and keep our internal one hidden as well) thus forcing other people to finally act. Is it really surprising that someone who lacks moral courage and strength would try to find others to do his or her bidding?

We convince ourselves that with absolute proof of the official lies in hand the illusion would be unequivocally exposed, thus compelling ‘we the people’ (meaning ‘other’ people) to reject them and it. This is the lie we tell ourselves to remain hidden from ourselves and safely within the consensus herd which acts as an extremely poor substitute for our missing inner communication.

We wish to believe that simply knowing the truth will somehow displace the lie, similar to Archimedes splashing water over the sides of the tub as he settles in for his weekly soak. Somehow this absolves us from the obligation to act because “the truth” is now known and the liars will wither away in the bright disinfecting sunlight of truth, justice and the American way. The ugly truth is that a ‘truth’ (as well as a ‘lie’) has power only when it’s embraced, not simply because it exists. Since we don’t wish to embrace the inner truth, we must support the external lies in order to use them to feed our plausible deniability. While we might not fully understand this form of self deception our masters are well aware of it and skillfully use it against us.

Many truths lay abandoned on the side of the road for years, decades even, because their abandonment serves the needs of nearly everyone, not just the official liars, to ignore their own culpability. Once a truth is exposed the liars have no control over the truth except in their (our) ability to convince us to ignore or distort it. The spin doctor’s only purpose is to enable our own self deception. They don’t ‘hide’ the truth as much as they help convince us that it’s in our own best interest to ignore or distort it. You really don’t want to look in there, do you? The con man never forces the mark, but rather skillfully leverages the situation.

Seductive Submission

This entire process reminds me of the quintessential seduction scene in a Harlequin romance novel. The women is ‘taken’, seduced in the arms of someone who may or may not have her best interest at heart. Very little is said about her willingness to believe the lies and promises, of her own desire to suspend disbelief and accept the attractive lies, other than to present the supposedly mitigating factor that she’s emotionally overwhelmed and thus ‘not herself’. After all if you’re not yourself you certainly can’t be held responsible for anything your ‘self’ might do, right? Naturally no one wants to ask where we might find the ‘self’ if it’s not ‘here’.

She’s being told what she wants to hear and its music to her ears. The incredible natural high we receive when our egoic lies are confirmed by outside sources, conceits we actively solicit precisely because they induce that endorphin buzz, puts to shame any man made pharmacological magic created to date.

Of course this behavior isn’t restricted to the fairer sex. Males are just as accomplished at self medicating as the female side of the species. I guess surrendering to passionate desire (and greed) is justification for any transgression as long as the emotion is pure, intoxicating and oh so good. We wouldn’t let our children get away with a bullshit excuse like this yet it seems fine and dandy for the adults in the room.

This is a classic example of self victimization, but it’s diplomatically presented as a near innocent who is being intentionally harmed by a scheming evil doer who’s only after her lying labia lips. Notice that it’s rarely pointed out how the liar would never be in her arms in the first place without her willing consent and active participation. We hear about his ‘power’ over her, but very little about her willingness to submit and let someone else be responsible for her (in) actions.

Layers of self deception this deep can only occur when we are patently dishonest with ourselves, yet this type of behavior is glorified in far more ways than just romance novels. Nationalism is a perfect example of the process we use to allow ourselves to be controlled by others, to surrender to the herd mentality and any responsibility for our actions. We’re all familiar with the seductive urge and the invisible pull to engage in herd behavior where the anonymity of the crowd washes away any personal responsibility for ones actions.

There’s nothing more we need to know, no other proof needed, other than the certain knowledge that we are lied to on a daily basis. This is obvious and widely known, but rarely openly acknowledged. Our need to know the truth and our demand for unequivocal proof that it is the truth, proof that we often insist must come from a person of ‘authority’ (usually one of the authorities who told us the lie in the first place) is a reflection of our inner reluctance to remove the liars from our lives, starting within ourselves.

Doing so would require us to move out of our comfort zone and face who and what we really are, co-conspirators and dance partners rather than helpless soap bubbles blowing in the wind. Our masters know this and to further enable our self deception they constantly shrink our comfort zones, giving us all the more reason to remain safely huddled within our contracting world.

We say we want freedom yet true freedom is just as frightening to us as truth itself. For the most part we are kept animals and as distasteful as this may be to our sensitive egos we like it this way. Many years ago I overheard one woman tell another that “Children like it when we set boundaries and rules for them.” I agree. Very young children want, in fact need, to know they are safe in a world that is capricious and unfathomable.

So it makes sense that externally imposed rules and boundaries would give children an artificially implanted sense of order and predictability, at least until their own conditioning is complete and they can maintain their own illusion of personal safety through denial. The same applies to us as adults. We all want our freedom just as long as it comes with a reasonably clear set of rules that thankfully keeps us from straying to far into personal accountability and responsibility.

Love Your Captivity

While few among us would actually admit this we are trained to love our hamster wheels and for the most part we do. Or more accurately, we fear having no hamster wheel because then we would need to be self sufficient and personally responsible for all our actions in a world that has no overall order imposed upon us. That’s the key difference here because presently the prevailing attitude amongst us hamsters is quite simple. Just show me the maze, hand me the rule book and I’ll figure it out as I go along. Or at least I’ll survive long enough to feed and breed. This is of course a crass oversimplification of our social order, but you get the idea.

Because we allow ourselves to be seduced by the rules of a world that’s created for us we are easily manipulated by the controllers and the control system. It does this by making the rules……wait for it……wait for it……capricious and unfathomable if we don’t submit to the whip. By surrendering our inalienable right (and I submit our inner moral and spiritual duty) to be free and independent souls in return for a set of externally created and manipulated rules and conditions we condemn ourselves to a life of predictable infantile responses that are easily controlled.

The cognitive barriers that define our comfort zone and the lines we claim we don’t wish to be violated are all an illusion presented to us. And after sufficient assimilation they are perpetuated by us. They are thus easily modified by us each time the line is crossed by the liar, affording all of the liars plenty of wiggle room. “OK, I’ll give you one more chance. But don’t cross this line or next time you’re really gonna get it.” The inconvenient truth is that the battle isn’t with the external liars; it is with us and within us. And our external liars, our masters, unquestionably know this which is precisely why the insanity is escalating as they pile lies on top of more lies.

As this spinning top begins to wobble out of control and despite our protestations and demands for the truth, we really don’t want the lies to stop because if they do the day of our own internal reckoning will also be at hand. The definition of collective insanity is our willingness to be destroyed as a group so long as we are not judged as individuals. Or worse that we are not forced to judge ourselves. But even this we’ll deny knowing in order to maintain our plausible deniability. Thus we begin to understand the reason for the continued lying by all the parties involved, victims as well as the victimizers, and why I constantly describe the insanity at its most basic level as self induced.

We talk about financial moral hazard on Wall Street and within the Too Big To Fail (TBTF) banks as central to their escalating greed and corruption. And yet we all participate in a similar social moral hazard that fully enables our abusers. We’re trapped inside this insanity because to acknowledge it means dealing with a life time of denial. It’s so much easier to accept one more beating by our master rather than to come to terms with a lifetime of self abuse.

Presumed Informed Consent

Tragically, because we willingly participate in our own subjugation, regardless of whether it’s occurring on a conscious or subconscious level, the abusers see this as informed consent and the green light to continue the abuse. This is why they often tell us exactly how they’re going to abuse us long before doing so. In our role as victim we declare the abusers to be sociopaths and ourselves as virginal bleeders in order to shift blame and responsibility away from ourselves. It’s all part of the dance of denial and the abuser will accept the role of the heavy in exchange for his or her own rewards.

We may say we want the abuse to stop, but our verbal and non verbal communication says otherwise. How is this any different from the Harlequin woman saying “No, please stop” in the arms of her seducer while returning each kiss with passionate urgency? This is the unspoken communication between the abused and the abuser that is witness to and evidence of the real insanity of the dysfunctional relationship, regardless of whether it’s between husband and wife, nation and citizens or Ponzi and the world.

By the way I am in no way, shape or form justifying or condoning the abuser, rapist or thief simply because I’m explaining the process involved along with our own participation. My position is simple. If we can’t even honestly discuss our own weaknesses and foibles, we are well beyond self redemption. I often say that we are only as sick as our deepest darkest secrets and examining how much of our world is considered verboten and not to be discussed demonstrates this concept superbly.

We’ve all been in relationships where the dysfunctional discourse goes something like this. I won’t ask difficult questions of you if you won’t ask them of me. And I’m not talking about being sensitive to someone’s unsightly mole or dandruff, but rather avoiding a healthy discussion about our spouse’s basic character flaws in order to be spared our own undressing.

This is the fundamental basis for all dysfunctional relationships, including the present one between an intentionally self absorbed and distracted population and our enabling and manipulative masters. As long as we are given the choice between believing the lies and rejecting them, the vast majority will accept the lie rather than risk the perceived emotional and psychological harm of challenging our victimhood which supports our fantasy view of how the world works.

Because we don’t wish to undergo a rigorous self appraisal or emotional unveiling, we completely blow out of proportion the intellectual and emotional harm we will suffer if we do so. This serves the dual purpose of creating plausible deniability while feeding our inner victim. In this way we fulfill both roles of the dysfunctional relationship, that of the abuser and the abused. I call this process a familiar circle jerk with me, myself and I. Add anyone else and the room would become too crowded.

The master’s lies are a direct and personal challenge delivered to us on a daily basis and our controllers know that as long as their lies are not seriously confronted they are safe………and so are we. So they work very hard at keeping the lies from being contested, expertly using a variety of tools including ridicule to turn public opinion against truth. In reality it’s really not that hard to seduce us with lies when so very few of us really wish to hear the truth to begin with.

This explains perfectly the assault upon Assange and Wikileaks from all sides. He’s promoting himself as a truth speaker and thus challenging the lies not so much by what he’s exposing, but by the very fact that he exists. He is a danger to everyone, not just the official liars. If he is accepted as a truth speaker, we the people must then do something about the truths he speaks of. We definitely don’t wish to be forced to confront those who lie to us because then we would be required to openly admit we participated in the lying. This is why we want them to lie, to allow us to remain out of harm’s way. “Daddy, tell me another lie so that I can believe it’s the truth.”

True or False, it Doesn’t Matter

Assaulting the truth messenger also removes the need to know if he’s a disinformation agent or a real truth speaker. What’s missed entirely in this discussion is that it doesn’t matter if he is or is not a psyops operative. It’s the message of ‘truth’ he’s delivering that’s the source of our power, not the actual revelations. The powers that be don’t fear the truth; they fear people embracing the truth. Ultimately this is the secret to our inner peace and freedom. Understand that it is not the truth that will set us free because we can free ourselves at any time. The inconvenient truth is that perpetually seeking the truth while doing nothing about the ‘truths’ already established is the crutch we use to avoid facing the original lies that begin within.

When we have abandoned the willingness to honestly look within for truth, when we are complete strangers to ourselves and no longer posses the capacity to ‘know’ something without the need for external affirmation we then desperately turn to poor substitutes from corrupted external sources. This is why there’s an increasingly desperate need by the population at large to seek ‘proof’, ‘truth’ and ‘facts’ which must always be secured from those who are widely considered to be ‘authorities’. The only authoritative source worth consulting when seeking truth lay deep within us, unless of course we are also hopelessly corrupted.

Once we are completely lost within our own insane world of distortions, lies and self deception we become obsessed with finding ‘truth’ everywhere else in order to validate and sanctify ourselves so that we may continue to perpetuate our own lying. This infantile need for affirmation after we have lied to ourselves and to others is similar to the child who has just lied, then seeks confirmation from the authority figure that the child is still loved. Often the adult knows s/he was just lied to, but chooses to say nothing to prevent opening their own can of worms. This in effect makes the lie socially acceptable and further cements the bond between the two dysfunctional parties. It’s also how we teach our children the art of self deception.

The pathological liars and self deceivers we have become serves to compel us to continuously seek external affirmation that we are not a ‘bad’ liar, meaning socially unacceptable, precisely because we can’t provide that ‘proof’ internally. We can’t hide from our own lies since the one thing we always know is the source of them. As was so wonderfully illustrated in the movie ‘Inception’ we know where the root of the lie originates, thus we must dig ever deeper into our own insanity in order to bury our self deception. This in turn just compounds our raging dysfunction. Because everyone engages in this behavior, yet no one talks about it, everyone’s insanity is considered to be a normal part of human nature.

This is the pathology of our insanity and precisely why it must be vigorously dug out and then thoroughly rejected. A quick splash of paint or a rough wall papering will not suffice. If this is not done, ultimately we revert to worshiping Golden Truth Idols and false True Gods as saviors of our lost and abandoned souls. If we are honest in our desire to seek truth and we begin a fearless search within, we eventually come to realize that the external seeking of ‘truth’ is immaterial and all just part of the control system we gratefully embrace in order to hide from ourselves.

04-10-2011

Cognitive Dissonance