Finansiella Insikter

Regelbundna läsare vet hur stor respekt jag har för Jim Sinclair som jag följt under ett antal år. Rekommenderar att ni läser följande meddelande från Jim där han talar om behovet av att praktiskt förbereda sig inför nollställningen.

Även om det inte är första gången som Jim talar om detta så tror jag personligen att det nu är viktigare än någonsin och rimmar med det budskap som Chris Martenson levererade nyligen.

My Dear Friends,

Truth be told, the major theme of JSMineset has been one of self reliance in a monetary, physical and Emersonian sense. Our focus has been on your assets, your debt positions, legal matters and investment.

I have, with my dear friends here at JSMineset, tried to share what we know with you. We also pride ourselves in that we not only talk the talk, but also walk the walk.

Has Trader Dan not moved from Houston to an undisclosed location in Idaho? I am writing to you from a farm in North Western Connecticut, a rural part of the state. We provide our own water, can provide our own power, have a radio system fallback for communication, satellite phones, furnaces that burn coal or oil, an indoor pistol range that can take up to .50 calibre cartridges into a Detroit bullet trap, perimeter lighting, 16 camera day and night camera security and much more.

We have focused on conservative financial structures which were in truth taking you into the position of being your own central bank.

I have received from many people on my 70th birthday greetings plus small letters telling me how they have benefited from this link. Let me mention but two. A lady in the minerals industry lost her job and is the mother of two children and only bread winner in the house. She had very little money, but saved up a nest egg. She admits she did speculate but used the Angels. She now has $2,000,000 and has finished her period of speculation.

Chris from Canada told me that his portfolio, now mostly fully paid gold and silver, is worth $5,000,000. It was nowhere near that when he started.

Every effort here was to make you your own central bank which resulted in financial self reliance for many.

There is one more step that you really need to consider. The housing market is in a black hole from which it very well might not recover for generations. Land is cheap. When homes or small farms have been foreclosed on, resulting in bank owned property, they are sold in a fire sale to buyers with cash in hand.

Do as I have done. Do as Trader Dan has done.

The pictures below are on my maple syrup operations and my build it yourself greenhouse. The vegetables for my garden are already sprouting. I have fruit trees and am adding mature nut trees.

I strongly suggest that if you have benefitted from JSMineset, as many of you have, consider buying yourself a hobby farm and seriously go for the exercise of self reliance. I am certain that if even to cut costs you are going to need it.

The financial system is screwed up beyond any repair. On top of that there is no desire to repair anything because the wise guys know it is impossible. It is the world that the flushing of Lehman Bros. has created. It is not a brave new world. It is more like an audition for a world of Mad Max and the Day After.

It does not matter whether or not there is more QE. The damage is done and there is no solution.

Earth shaking events are taking place in the Middle East that the media would have you believe is a spontaneous outburst of democracy. Like hell it is. It is a move from some sort of rule, like it or not, to chaos.

Now that you are financially in good shape, please get physically self reliant.

Regards,
Jim

Bill Gross, som nyligen beslutade dumpa hela sitt innehav av amerikanska obligationer i PIMCOs Total Return Fund (världens största obligationsfond), har skrivit ett intressant brev med titeln “Skunked” där han talar om att USA sannolikt kommer att defaulta på sin statsskuld.

Även om det inte kommer som någon direkt överraskning för läsare av denna bloggen, så är det givetvis alltid intressant att notera när det kommer från en person som Gross som definitivt vet vad han talar om.

Här är en kommentar och länk till “Skunked” från ZeroHedge:

“Skunked”: Bill Gross On How “The U.S. Will Likely Default On Its Debt”

In a letter focusing on what has been well known to Zero Hedge readers for about two years now, Bill Gross’ latest investment outlook does the usual attack of Beltway stupidity (as if Congress is in any way competent of making math-related decisions – they do what Wall Street – that’s you Bill! – tell them to do, and you know it), emphasizing the impossible math of total US entitlement liabilities (on a net present value basis), which Gross estimates at $75 trillion. That Gross conclusion is predetermined from the onset is not surprising: “Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.” Then again, that America is bankrupt is not really news to anyone. Neither is it news, that Gross, as we first reported, no longer has any US bonds to dispose of. What will be news is the inflection point at which Gross starts purchasing Treasuries once again. And after all with $220 billion in AUM in the Total Return Fund, what else will he do: hold on to cash? Buy Netflix? Then the only question will be how Gross spins the inevitable capitulation of the re-hypocrisy trade, validating that he, in a narrow sense, and PIMCO in a broad one, is perhaps the biggest cog in the very system that Bill spends so many hours writing letters about and complaining against. But yes, even that won’t be all that surprising to us. After all, in this bizarro world absolutely everything is now priced in.

Här är en kommentar från ZeroHedge:

While everyone knows that the CPI in the US is manipulated beyond repair (a topic far too broad to be discussed here suffice to say that as disclosed previously true inflation in the US is currently runrating at over 8%), inflation as actually represented by US consumers and reported by Zero Hedge earlier, in the form of the 1 year inflation expectation index of the Conference Board lack of confidence index, is near all time highs. So if one takes this data series and adds to it the narrow unemployment definition (U3) one would get an adjusted Misery Index for US citizens (using inflation expectations instead of manipulated CPI). As the chart below shows, the Misery Index, which is merely inflation plus unemployment, constructed as such, would now be at an all time high. Hardly in keeping with Bernanke’s wealth effect prerogative, but surely in line with record food stamp usage reported month after month. That said, the silver lining to that particular mushroom cloud is our confidence that as the bulk of Americans live in record “misery”, they will be comforted to know that their 20 shares of NFLX are trading at a four digit EPS multiple. And the other good news is that we have the Brits beat again: whereas the US is at a record, the UK is merely at a 20 year high, proving once again that only the US never does anything half-assed.

Nedan är en intressant graf med kommentarer från Graham Summers från Phoenix Capital Research (från den 25/3) som diskuterades flitigt i bloggosfären igår. Nyligen kunde vi också läsa att IMF förbereder sig för något med att fylla på med nytt ‘räddningskapital’. Någonting stort är verkligen på gång och jag tror vi alla vet vad vid det här laget.

This is the most important chart related to the financial system today:

This is a chart of the US monetary base. In simple terms, it charts how much money the Fed has pumped into the system (at least that it admits). So it’s a kind of visual of the Fed hitting the PANIC button: when the monetary base explodes higher, the Fed is FREAKING out.

You’ll note that during the Financial Crisis the Fed didn’t do much until the autumn of 2008 when it pumped nearly $1 trillion into the system. Think about that, the Fed didn’t go nuts pumping money until the stuff REALLY hit the fan.

You’ll also note that there’s only one other time when the monetary base went absolutely vertical: TODAY.

Indeed, the Fed has pumped nearly $500 billion into the system since the start of 2011. Don’t even try to tell me this is QE 2. If it was then the monetary base should have spiked in late 2010, NOT in 2011.

No, this is the Fed FREAKING OUT about the financial system again. And it’s a freak out on par with 2008.

So if you think that all is well “behind the scenes” you’re in for a rude surprise. Something BIG is going down and I think it’s this:

This is the 31-year weekly chart of the 30-Year Treasury. As you can see, since 1988, the 30-Year has respected the above trendline. Every time we touched up against it, the 30-Year bounced hard and continued its long-term bull market.

The last time we nearly took out this line? The very beginning of 2011:

Remember, the interest-rate based derivatives market in the US is $196 TRILLION. If the Fed lets interest rates get out of hand, then the entire system breaks down even worse than it did in 2008: 2008’s crisis was triggered by the credit defaults swap market which was just $50-60 trillion in size (less than 1/3 of the interest rate based derivatives market).

Small wonder the Fed is going nuts pumping $500 billion into the system in the last three months alone. After all, once the Fed loses control of interest rates (and it will) we’re going to see a market 4-5X bigger than the credit default swap market implode.

Måndagen bjöd på en del intressanta händelser för guld- och silverinvesterare. CFTC har under en tid samlat in kommentarer till deras planerade ‘position limits’, som är extra intressanta för silverinvesterare, och när vi närmade oss deadline så kunde vi igår läsa följande:

• BARCLAYS SAYS CFTC SHOULD DEFER DECISIONS ABOUT NATURE AND EXTENT OF POTENTIAL LIMITS UNTIL AFTER IT COLLECTS NEW DATA ABOUT OTC MARKETS

Inte för att det kommer som någon direkt överraskning. Det är mycket som står på spel och även om bankerna kommer att hitta kryphål även i ett nytt regelverk, så kommer de göra allt för att behålla status-quo.

Här är en kommentar från ZeroHedge:

Well, we know at least one bank has some sizable, non-grandfatherable commodity block positions. Why Barclays thinks CFTC does not have data on OTC markets is beyond us. So while we await the CFTC to issue its decision on position limits, any minute now, we wonder just how many other banks (wink wink Blythe) will follow up with comparable objections demanding an “indefinite” delay to what may soon unleash true price discovery, particularly in the PM market. And incidentally, whatever happened to the Fed’s mandated disclosure of the confidential bank rescue information. At what point will Ben Bernanke be held in contempt to court for not following the decision of the Superior Court? 

Vad som skapade en hel del diskussion inom bloggosfären igår kväll var följande info från CFTC (via ZeroHedge), vilket många tolkade som om något mycket stort är på gång:

The U.S. futures regulator said on Monday it has canceled its latest rule-making meeting scheduled on March 30.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission did not give a reason for the cancellation. The agency had planned to introduce at its 13th rule-making session a measure for data recordkeeping and reporting requirements for swaps prior to implementation of the rule, as well as transition swaps.

The CFTC is writing dozens of regulations to implement the Dodd-Frank law, which was enacted last July and gives the agency oversight of the $600 trillion global swaps market.

The agency also has scheduled a meeting on April 7 to introduce another batch of proposals. Measures including capital and margin requirements for non-bank companies, and a definition for the types of swaps that will be required to clear and trade have yet to be introduced.

Här är en kommentar från Harvey Organ:

As many of you know, our CFTC commissioners are meeting and assessing what all of us complained to them. I did not realize that the meeting was set for March 30.2011.  Now this meeting has been cancelled. I am very angry at this. I will report when I get more information.

ZeroHedge publicerade även igår ett intressant inlägg där man lyfte fram en del intressanta kommentarer som inkommit till CFTC, bl a från Goldman Sachs och Morgan Stanley. Inget från JP Morgan, men väl intressanta kommentarer från World Gold Council, som uppger sig stödja guldbranschen, men i själva verket går kartellens ärenden.

Här är en kommentar från GATAs Chris Powell:

The council’s objection to position limits involves to a great extent their potential to interfere with the derivative instruments that have diverted monetary demand for gold away from real metal and into paper promises of metal that suppress gold’s price but can’t be fulfilled, and the potential for position limits to interfere with hedging by gold miners, another price-suppressive practice.

In essence, the council’s statement is a defense of an unlimited supply of paper gold issued by the several big international banks that control the gold and silver markets, paper gold being the enemy of real metal priced in a free market as well as the enemy of accountability for government currencies.

The World Gold Council’s letter to the CFTC has been posted at GATA’s Internet site but apparently not at the council’s own Internet site. One has to wonder here whether the council is representing mining companies or their bankers instead.

Och här är en kommentar från ZeroHedge:

The public comment period for the CFTC’s proposed position limit rule has come and gone. It should come as no surprise to anyone (and particularly those transfixed by the massive surges in various commodities, among them most certainly gold and silver) that what is at stake here is not some actual position limit definition and subsequent regulation and enforcement (although that most certainly is), but yet another challenge to the klepocratic status quo which naturally prefers the status quo to remain as is, and public interests, which seeing 100% moves in the price of grain, cotton, corn, and other commodities, would obviously prefer to reign in speculative fervor. At the end of the day, Wall Street will find loopholes in whatever the end rule is as it always does, but the polemic on the way there is quite interesting. Which is why having combed through some of the last minute public comment submissions (of which there were 5,561 in total at last check), we present some of the most indicative ones: one the one hand that of Carl “Shitty Deal” Levin, Chair of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, who obviously is for the most prompt implementation of position limits as envisioned in Dodd Frank, and on the other hand institutional money managers and traders such as PIMCO, Morgan Stanley, the World Gold Council, and, naturally, Goldman Sachs (oddly, we have yet to track down the response by one JP Morgan).

Här är ett intressant utdrag från Reuters:

Most are reframing familiar complaints: Banks, traders and exchanges say the rules would make it harder to hedge risk, and that it would reduce liquidity and increase consumer costs.

If the proposed rules are adopted with no change, “there is a substantial risk that they would undermine the efficiency of the markets for hedgers, by reducing liquidity and disrupting markets which currently function well”, Linda Cutler, a Cargill vice president, said in a letter to the agency.

Och en passande kommentar från ZeroHedge:

Ah yes, the same “we provide liquidity” straw man excuse that the HFT scalp brigade uses every time someone threatens to take away their market frontrunning power. 

Och slutligen, här är en passande kommentar från Jim Sinclair som påminner oss om betydelsen av den fysiska marknaden för guld och silver:

My Dear Friends,

The paper gold market is not the gold market. As in the 1970s, cash will rule the ultimate price. Gold’s involvement in a new virtual world currency will sustain 80% of that high price.
In the 1970s paper gold was a short term game and influence on price. Today paper gold has been just that.
Pay no attention to the games the gold banks are playing. That is for their short term benefit.
Gold will trade at $1650 before it goes much higher.

Regards,
Jim

Inför den portugisiska regeringens fall så tog vi upp den allt större pressen mot Portugal som kändes att vargflocken började flockas kring sitt byte.

Idag kunde vi läsa följande rubriker (via Zerohedge) som verkligen får en att undra om inte vargflocken nu har för avsikt att sätta in dödsstöten mot landet.

JP Morgan says Portugal may ask for EFSF rescue as soon as this weekend , sees bond spreads wider by 50-75 bps

S&P Warns May Downgrade Portugal Again As Early As This Week

Visst, Portugal har grävt sin egen grav sedan lång tid tillbaka (precis som Grekland och Irland), men med tanke på vilka krafter som just nu ser ut att göra allt man kan för att få landet att ge upp den lilla självständighet man har, kan jag inte undgå att känna viss sympati för landets befolkning som förts bakom ljuset (i likhet med många andra länder).

Rekommenderar att ni läser följande svar som Jim Sinclair skrivit som svar till Martin Armstrongs senaste alster om guld.

Som jag skrev i en kommentar häromdagen så har Martin Armstrong både en intressant bakgrund och modell för att förutspå cykler. Håller dock helt klart med Jim – varför bry sig om de kommande 90 dagarna om man tror att guld kommer att stiga till $5000?

Visst, det finns många som handlar på kort sikt och säkert tycker det är mycket intressant. Dock är de allra flesta (en del uppskattar det till hela 90%) dömda att misslyckas. De riktigt stora pengarna görs av de som låter investeringarna ligga still i denna ‘super bull market’.

Martin Armstrong just wrote a paper on gold titled, “How and When.” My response to this article is why?

Why in the world, if you believe that the gold price can go to $5000 and $12,500, as the article says, do you give a damn about the next 90 days?

You must realize that the economic and political damage is already done.
You must realize that the mountain of OTC derivative paper is not going away.
You must realize that all the old legacy assets (broken OTC derivatives) demand to be adjusted at each market turn in order to maintain any semblance that they are serious contracts.
You must realize that this adjustment means adding on new OTC derivatives.
You must realize that this means the mountain of OTC derivative weapons of mass financial destruction can only grow.
You must realize that it is not whether or not QE will continue, it is what it already has done to the Western economies that much higher gold prices will reflect.
You must realize this is not a business problem, but rather a debt problem as it applies to the gold price.
You must realize the monumental change in the Middle East is NOT positive for the West in any manner, shape or form.
You must realize that the change in the Middle East is from some form of government to chaos.
You must realize that the beneficiaries of chaos in the Middle East are Iran and Russia.
You must realize that the main product of the establishment of a no fly zone in Libya is to benefit the Rebels.
You must realize that the rebels are an unknown factor in Libya.
You must realize that a second product of the no fly zone is greater hatred in the Middle East for all things West.
You must realize that the peak production of energy is behind us.
You must realize that the production of energy in chaos will be less than under some form of rule.
You must realize that this combination of monumental Middle East change and peak oil means peak oil is no longer a consideration 10 to 15 years from now, it is now.
You must realize that the Angels (gold prices) are not simple talk but rather a method used by the great market maven, Jesse Livermore.
You must realize that on the next trip to $1444, that price will fall to the long term bull market on gold.
You must realize that $1650, a place where gold will trade, is so low it will be comical looking back from 2015.
You must realize that “QE to Infinity” is not a choice but all there is left in the tool box of the US Fed.
You must realize the truth of today’s comment by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President.
You must realize that what the President of the Federal Reserve Bank fears will occur.
You must realize no sovereign country needs to go broke.
You must realize they simply refer to QE as policy.
You must realize that it is the currency that breaks, not the country.
You must realize that the point of correctness in the article “How and When” that is true is his $5000 to $12,500 figure and not the prognostications of the next 90 days.

Fed’s Fisher: U.S. debt situation at tipping point
On Tuesday March 22, 2011, 10:43 am EDT
By Marc Jones and Sakari Suoninen

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The U.S. debt situation is at a “tipping point,” Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday, and urged the U.S. central bank to refrain from any further stimulus measures.

“If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent. The question is when,” Fisher said in a speech at the University of Frankfurt.

Fisher, seen by economists as one of the most hawkish policymakers within the Fed, said that although debt-cutting measures would be painful, he expected the U.S. to take the necessary actions.

“The short-term negotiations are very important. I look at this as a tipping point.”

He said the U.S. economy was now growing under its own steam, but voiced his concerns about building global inflation pressures and said it was now time for the central bank to stop pumping out extra support.

“The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more.. In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June either by tapering off the bottom of treasuries or by adding another tranche of purchases outright.”

Protesterna mot de tyvärr helt oundvikliga nedskärningarna efter åratal av finansiell misskötsel har nu nått Storbritannien. Uppemot 500.000 britter (enligt organisatörerna) tågade idag genom London för att visa sitt missnöje i vad som uppges vara den största demonstrationen sedan Irak-kriget 2003.

Detta är fortfarande bara en uppvärmning för vad som komma skall. När nollställningen väl sker kommer de nu föreslagna nedskärningarna i välfärden att framstå som obetydliga. Vi bevittnar en finansiell krasch i slow-motion.

Här är ett par bilder via SkyNews:

SkyNews: Police said paint bombs and ammonia-filled lightbulbs were thrown

‘Silver björnarna’ är tillbaka.