Finansiella Insikter

WOW är det enda jag kan få ur mig för att beskriva tisdagens utveckling för guld och silver. Framförallt silver började dagen starkt och klättrade till 29,70 dollar under förmiddagens handel bara för att tappa hela uppgången när Kina meddelade att man höjer räntan med 25 punkter. Jag tror knappast jag var ensam om att förvänta mig en negativ utveckling för guld och silver (och den bredare råvarumarknaden) under resten av dagen och kanske resten av veckan.

Men vad hände? Guld och silver vände plötsligt upp och såg ut att agera draglok för koppar och resten av den bredare råvarumarknaden som också vände upp. De som läste Eric Sprotts artikel ‘Guld Tsunami‘ vet att en räntehöjning från Kina inte kommer påverka den urstarka efterfrågan på guld och silver för fem öre. Marknaden hade länge förberett sig för en ny kinesisk räntehöjning och kanske kändes det till och med bra att få det överstökat.

Så här kommenterade Bill Murphy dagens utveckling:

As veteran traders know, there is nothing better than when the price of a commodity rises on negative news and nothing worse than when it falls for no reason, or on positive news. The fall bit we saw in January, was an artificial fall orchestrated by The Gold Cartel and allies. That fall cleaned out the spec longs who became disgusted with gold’s lousy performance and for just that reason. The bums received much less traction in silver as we all know.

However both precious metals became SOLD OUT from a technical perspective. Those who were going to sell exited the market. Thus, there were few sellers around to dump gold and silver on supposedly negative news this morning. There were buyers waiting in the wings for both gold and silver and when both failed to react negatively to the Chinese rate hike, many wanted in at the same time and the scramble was on.

Och här är en kommentar från Dan Norcini:

To see market action like this tells me that an inflation psychology is beginning to become more entrenched in the minds of global investors who are slowly coming to realize that the Central Banks are well behind the inflation curve. I think it is also safe to say, based on the price action across these various markets, that the deflation boogeyman is losing his allies.

Perhaps this is what has been foretold in the bond market’s breakdown of last Friday. Were it not for the continued meddling by the US monetary authorities in that bond market ( they euphemistically term it “Quantitative Easing ), I suspect that the bonds would have been sharply lower today as well. Inflation is raging across Asia and in many places in Latin America and it is just a matter of time before even the worst skeptic is going to be forced into acknowledging the obvious – that it is coming to a movie theater near you. Certainly a plunging US Dollar is not synonymous with deflationary pressures!

Samt en kommentar till utvecklingen för guld:

The technical posture of gold just got a tremendous boost with today’s good showing. Both the 10 day and the 20 day moving averages have now turned higher and momentum has now broken the downtrend line that has been in place for the last two months. What is now needed to put some icing on the cake is for momentum to move into positive territory. This will further encourage traders to Buy dips rather than Sell rallies.

Och slutligen några ord från Dan om den explosiva utvecklingen för silver:

A quick comment about silver – those of you who have been tuning in to my weekly radio interviews with Eric King over at King World News have heard us discuss its technical price chart. I am still watching for a strong close above the $30 level for a sign that this market is ready to kick up another leg higher. One can see the action of the Bears attempting to hold it down below this level by watching the 3 minute bar chart, as they realize what such a close would mean to their positions. Going into the close, it is apparent that they failed. If silver can stay above $30 the rest of the day, odds now favor a test of the recent high in short order. Keep in mind, as we discussed on our recent radio interview, the COT report shows that last week the hedge funds (managed money) finally began increasing their net long exposure after having whittled that down for the last couple of months. They are now returning to this market and doing so from a sharply reduced long side exposure. There is plenty of room available for them to begin piling back in and that is what leads me to believe that the recent high is going to fall. Also, a lot of guys sitting on the sideline waiting for silver prices to move lower so that they could buy are now realizing that they had better get in. That is what buying does – it begets more buying.

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2. Nedräkning till möjlig råvaruslakt efter Kinas räntehöjning
3. Januari-rean för guld och silver har börjat
4. Guld och silver trotsar ‘experternas’ bubbel-varningar
5. Guld och silver faller kraftigt efter att Kina höjer styrräntan