James Turk: Guld och silver har nått en viktig bottennivå
King World News har intervjuat James Turk som tycker sig se att guld och silver har nått en viktig bottennivå och pekar bl a på den ovanliga situationen på oljemarknaden där Brent handlas över WTI, den negativa inställningen till guld och COT rapporten (som visar på rekordlåga långa positioner bland sk ‘managed money’) som viktiga orsaker.
Nedan är intervjun med Turk i sin helhet:
With volatility continuing in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. When asked about the action in precious metals Turk responded, “Through Friday’s close on the LBMA, silver remained in backwardation, even by the numbers reported on the LBMA’s site. The strong bounce on Friday after the option expiration combined with the backwardation is clear evidence that silver doesn’t want to stay down here in this area and is ready to move higher.”
“If we get silver above $28.70, that will reverse the trend followers from short to long. The number on gold is $1,378. This is what is going to take gold and silver to new highs. You will see open interest expanding as people who were shaken out come in and put on long positions.
You have to keep in mind Eric that this little shakeout over the last couple of weeks has done nothing to change the very bullish fundamental factors that have been driving gold and silver higher. Most significantly the CRB CCI (Continuous Commodity Index) is at record highs. There is simply too much money being printed around the world and this monetary debasement is behind the ongoing bull market in gold and silver.
There is a relationship between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate with WTI normally trading at a premium to Brent Crude. However, over the last couple of weeks, Brent has climbed to a huge and record premium over WTI and has remained in the high 90’s. At one point Brent was trading as much as $12 higher than WTI which is unheard of.
The significance of the way these two oils are trading is that Brent is a more accurate reflection of global oil prices and is therefore mirroring the record high prices we are seeing in the global food indexes.
Given the usual close correlation between the CCI and global crude oil prices and gold and silver, we can reasonably conclude that the correction in gold and silver is over and that the precious metals are going to start climbing higher.
As further evidence that we have reached an important low, bullish sentiment and the commitment of traders report are at levels seen at important bottoms.”
For those of you who are making monthly purchases of physical gold and silver, continue to do so and do not try to time these markets. Evidence is mounting that both gold and silver are putting in a floor to the downside near these levels. It will be interesting to see how high the next rally takes them.
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