Ljus framtid för Uran
Sedan vi publicerade vår artikel om Uran i november 2010 har priset stigit med drygt 14% till 66 dollar och många av bolagen i vår investeringsportfölj stigit kraftigt. Titan Uranium hör till de som gått bäst, med en uppgång på över 50%.
Nedan är en intressant intervju med Mark Lackey från Pope & Co som målar upp en ljus bild för investerare i uran. Han talar bl a om att priset på uran kan komma att stiga till 100 dollar under 2013, vilket skulle få bolagen i vår investeringsportfölj att stiga med hundratals procent och i vissa enstaka fall kanske med över 1000 procent. Detta är dock inget man skall räkna med, men visar på den enorma potentialen med denna riskfyllda investering.
Nedan är första delen av intervjun med Mark:
Mark Lackey: Bright Future for Uranium?
Source: Brian Sylvester of The Energy Report 01/13/2011
Mark Lackey, with Toronto-based financial services company Pope & Co., admits he’s in the minority. He believes the Street is too optimistic about production in Saskatchewan and Kazakhstan heading off a uranium shortage. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report,Mark explains why he believes Cigar Lake won’t save the day and why uranium could hit $100 a pound.
The Energy Report: Last summer, big uranium players like Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO; NYSE:CCJ) and BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE:BHP; OTCPK:BHPLF) bought uranium off the spot market because it was cheaper than boosting production. It’s estimated that those two companies bought as much as a quarter of the supply that was out there to meet their supply contracts. Are we seeing ripple effects in the uranium market now?
Mark Lackey: When those two big players were buying in the spot market, it signaled that the price was too low because they would have boosted production if that had been cheaper. But then those purchases started to move the price and China and South Korean started coming into the market to do some deals. Then, of course, there were other issues with AREVA (PAR:CEI) trying to ensure that it could get deals. Everyone was looking for uranium at the same time; consequently, the price moved $22/lb. in about three months. Earlier this week it was at $62.50.
TER: Roughly 15% of the world’s electricity comes from nuclear power; 60 more nuclear power plants are being built and another 152 are on the drawing board. On the supply side, the Australians—at least those in the Northern Territories—have rejected a proposed uranium mine there, and some African jurisdictions are becoming quite dangerous. These factors seem to be signaling an impending, dramatic rise in the uranium price. Should we expect an even greater increase than what we’ve seen in the last couple of months?
ML: We’re forecasting $65–$70 this year and probably $75 next year. A big difference could come in 2013 due to some of the issues you pointed out. There are some real potential supply constraints. Russia has said it’s not going to export any more of the high-quality uranium from its weapons in 2013 when that agreement runs out. The consensus forecast for 2013 on the Street is still $75.
A lot of people think, “Well, Kazakhstan will continue to rapidly increase production.” We don’t tend to agree with that. Some people believe we’ll saved by Cigar Lake—the high-grade uranium mine in Northern Saskatchewan owned by Cameco (50%), AREVA (37%), Idemitsu Kosan Co. (8%) and Tokyo Electric Power Company (OSX:9501, OTCPK:TEPCO) (5%)—but we don’t know if that’s going to be up and running in 2013 for sure. Our view, and admittedly it’s a minority view, is that the price could easily spike above $100 in 2013 and go somewhat higher in the next few years until supply can catch up. That could take until 2015 or 2016 at least, and it may be longer due to the growth in demand. But the real argument is on the supply side, and some people are just too optimistic about where that new supply is going to come from.