Hur skall JP Morgan kunna komma ur sina korta positioner i silver?
Priset på silver ser inte ut att vilja går ner (även om JPM tillfälligt trycker ner det idag inför optionslösen) trots desperata försök att stoppa uppgången med två justeringar av belåningen inom en vecka. Adrian Douglas från GATA presenterar nedan en teori om hur JP Morgan och HSBC skall kunna komma ur sina massiva korta positioner.
If the Open Interest won’t go down the cartel has a problem. Who would want to take the short side with a barrage of lawsuits against JPM and HSBC and a CFTC Commissioner giving his opinion that silver has been fraudulently manipulated and controlled? If no one will be stupid enough to take the short side the cartel is trapped. Here is my theory as to how this will get resolved. The cartel will cover by continually increasing margin until there is no leverage (margin=100% of contract price). This might take some time but eventually you would have nobody wanting to be long because there is no leverage so you might as well buy bullion instead. If there are no takers for long futures then you don’t need anyone willing to go short. Problem solved! Open Interest would gradually decline to zero as speculators moved into other markets where they can find leverage. As the longs are squeezed with increased margin the shorts get to cover. This will probably mean prices would not dip very much, if at all, but it would be a way for the cartel to get out of dodge ONLY having to provide fiat money and no physical. Perhaps silver margins being raised twice in a week is the trial balloon to see if anyone screams foul. Will we see weekly margin raises? After the lack of OI contraction in the last 7-10 days I can see this is the only way out without an outright default.
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